The US NRC's accident sequence precursor program: an overview and development of a Bayesian approach to estimate core damage frequency using precursor information

Johnson, James W.; Rasmuson, D.M.

doi:10.1016/0951-8320(96)00064-6

Cited by 29 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…This approach has received considerable attention within the nuclear industry where modeling approaches are used to identify and assess potential precursors to reactor core meltdown. ( 15,16 ) In the approach taken in the nuclear industry, a prior distribution is formed as a product of a precursor distribution and a distribution representing a final barrier failing, hence leading to core meltdown. When new observations of precursors, accidents, or lack thereof occur over time, an updated posterior distribution is generated from the prior.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near‐Miss Incident Management in the Chemical Process Industry

Phimister¹,

Oktem²,

Kleindorfer³

et al. 2003

Risk Analysis

216

129

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This article provides a systematic framework for the analysis and improvement of near-miss programs in the chemical process industries. Near-miss programs improve corporate environmental, health, and safety (EHS) performance through the identification and management of near misses. Based on more than 100 interviews at 20 chemical and pharmaceutical facilities, a seven-stage framework has been developed and is presented herein. The framework enables sites to analyze their own near-miss programs, identify weak management links, and implement systemwide improvements.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near‐Miss Incident Management in the Chemical Process Industry

Phimister¹,

Oktem²,

Kleindorfer³

et al. 2003

Risk Analysis

216

129

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Accordingly, the accident under consideration and the relevant near accidents can be presented as outcomes (states) of the event tree. Event trees have been widely used in obtaining the precursor data of an accident . To make the discussion more concrete, consider the event tree of Fig.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Event trees have been widely used in obtaining the precursor data of an accident. (1,10,11,14,20) To make the discussion more concrete, consider the event tree of Fig. 2, which is composed of an initiating event A and two branching events (e.g., safety measures) B and C, and three outcomes X, Y, and Z depending on the occurrence/nonoccurrence or operation/failure of B and C. Conventionally, the upper branches of an event tree denote the operation of its branching events while the lower branches imply the failure of the branching events.…”

Section: Accident Precursors (Step 1)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, a near accident does not emerge as an accident just owning to functioning of one or more safety barriers whose failures would be sufficient to escalate the near accident to the accident. (10) The important role of accident precursors in risk analysis of major accidents has been recognized in previous work, such as explosion of space shuttles, (12,13) core melting in nuclear power plants, (7,14,15) train derailment, (9) fires and explosions in process plants, (16,17) and oil and gas major accidents. (10,11,18,19) The present work is aimed at introducing a novel methodology for precursor-based risk analysis of major accidents.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning

2015

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Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well-established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents' relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor-based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates.

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“…In terms of statistical analysis, Bayesian statistics is often proposed to estimate the frequency of severe accidents based on the frequency of observed near misses (Bier & Mosleh, 1990;Johnson & Rasmuson, 1996). Other factors used to classify near misses include the existence of initiating events and the probability of successful recovery (Cooke & Goossens, 1990).…”

Section: Techniques For the Prioritisation Of Near Missesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A near-miss management system architecture for the forensic investigation of software failures

Bella

Eloff

2016

Forensic Science International

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Abstract-Digital forensics has been proposed as a methodology for doing root-cause analysis of major software failures for quite a while. Despite this, similar software failures still occur repeatedly. A reason for this is the difficulty of obtaining detailed evidence of software failures. Acquiring such evidence can be challenging, as the relevant data may be lost or corrupt following a software system's crash. This paper proposes the use of near-miss analysis to improve on the collection of evidence for software failures. Near-miss analysis is an incident investigation technique that detects and subsequently analyses indicators of failures. The results of a near-miss analysis investigation are then used to detect an upcoming failure before the failure unfolds. The detection of these indicators -known as near misses -therefore provides an opportunity to proactively collect relevant data that can be used as digital evidence, pertaining to software failures. A Near Miss Management System (NMS) architecture for the forensic investigation of software failures is proposed. The viability of the proposed architecture is demonstrated through a prototype.

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The US NRC's accident sequence precursor program: an overview and development of a Bayesian approach to estimate core damage frequency using precursor information

Cited by 29 publications

References 5 publications

Near‐Miss Incident Management in the Chemical Process Industry

Near‐Miss Incident Management in the Chemical Process Industry

Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning

A near-miss management system architecture for the forensic investigation of software failures

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