The Use and Role of Predictive Systems in Disease Management

Abstract

Disease predictive systems are intended to be management aids. With a few exceptions, these systems typically do not have direct sustained use by growers. Rather, their impact is mostly pedagogic and indirect, improving recommendations from farm advisers and shaping management concepts. The degree to which a system is consulted depends on the amount of perceived new, actionable information that is consistent with the objectives of the user. Often this involves avoiding risks associated with costly disease outbreaks. Adoption is sensitive to the correspondence between the information a system delivers and the information needed to manage a particular pathosystem at an acceptable financial risk; details of the approach used to predict disease risk are less important. The continuing challenge for researchers is to construct tools relevant to farmers and their advisers that improve upon their current management skill. This goal requires an appreciation of growers' decision calculus in managing disease problems and, more broadly, their overall farm enterprise management.

Challenges and Prospects for Building Resilient Disease Management Strategies and Tactics for the New York Table Beet Industry

“…This may lead to reductions in fungicide usage with environmental and economic benefits and reduced exposure to pesticides when not warranted. However, complicating the decision to apply fungicides and maintain season-long disease control are inherently the risk-averse attitudes of growers due to the high economic impacts of CLS epidemics [73][74][75].…”

“…Forecasting systems quantify the cardinal environmental responses integrated into predictive algorithms that represent the processes regulating infection and disease development [73]. Studies on the effects of weather on infection and sporulation and the relationship between disease intensity and crop loss have led to the development of several forecasting systems for CLS in sugar beet [74][75][76][77].…”

“…Adoption of forecasters by industry and growers is strongly dependent upon ease of use and clear economic benefits, such as reduced costs of production (i.e., frequency of fungicide applications) and for fungicide resistance management [73]. Many of the CLS forecasters implemented in sugar beet have further bridged the practicality gap and are publicly available, well maintained and are broadly adopted [75], and therefore serve as models for the table beet industry in New York.…”

Concepts of Sustainability, Motivations for Pest Management Approaches, and Implications for Communicating Change

“…In the United States and other developed countries, this role has progressively been filled by private consultants (33), and some authors suggest delivery of certain types of information is best left to the private sector (3). Private consultants are consumers of information from extension agents and others (24) and perhaps the ultimate integrator of information for their clients, However, potential issues of "double risk asymmetry", a compounding of risk avoiding behavior, are possible if intermediaries impose their own aversion of risk into their recommendations (18).…”

Fifty Years Since Silent Spring

“…Eighth, apart from legal and customer constraints, farmers typically make their pesticide-use decisions based on their own needs (17,170), often for a single growing season. Gent et al (61) showed that Washington and Oregon grape growers ranked "environmental impacts" and "cost of chemicals" among the factors that were least likely to influence their decision about a pesticide application. A pesticide application may or may not result in an increase in yield or quality and a consequent profit in a given growing season.…”