The Use of Backcasting to Promote Urban Transformation to Sustainability: The Case of Toyama City, Japan

Aoki, Kazumasu; Kishita, Yusuke; Nakamura, Hidenori; Masuda, Takuma

doi:10.1007/978-981-15-1133-2_4

Cited by 4 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Within this context, many relevant disciplines (including sustainability) have since the late 1990s discussed the advantages of envisioning sustainable future cities and envisaged potential transition pathways towards the realisation of these futures. Such interests in scenario building, according to Aoki et al (2020), cover a wide range of subjects, including sustainable development and climate change and backcasting is particularly considered very promising in scenario building.…”

Section: Back Casting Visioning and Scenario Buildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential for Transition to Low-Carbon Urban Road Transport in Developing Countries: Insights from Literature

Kariuki

Kuria²

2023

Int. j. adv. res.

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It is projected that if no actions are taken to cut down the current rate of global warming, global temperatures will rise to irreversible levels between the years 2030 and 2050. Consequently, climate-induced risks to health, livelihoods, food and water supply/security, economic development, and human security will increase. However, although many efforts have been put in the developed nations to enhance sustainability in cities through the development of a Low-carbon transportation system, the situation is different in the developing nations. These countries are, for some reason, reluctant to adopt the concept of Low-carbon cities. For example, in Kenya, despite the evident climate threat associated with rising urban carbon emissions in the country, very little action to curb the emissions is observed both at individual and government levels. This is especially so in the transport sector. Therefore, it is critical that suitable low-carbon transition pathways are identified and adopted in the sector in order to cut down the emission levels. Although the transition to low-carbon transport is faced with a myriad of challenges, transitions bring about an enormousness of environmental and societal benefits through the development of environmentally sustainable systems. Policy instruments are governance tools that can be used to enhance the environmental sustainability of urban transport options. However, climate change targets cannot be realistically attained by a single policy instrument. Instead, research indicates the need for more integrative and strong policy packages that can stimulate low-carbon transitions. In view of this, there is a clear need for the envisioning of sustainable future cities and potential transition pathways towards the realisation of these futures, as it is considered advantageous to various disciplines. This study provides information that can be used to develop an integrated urban transportation system that is environmentally sustainable and which efficiently incorporates all modes of transport; based on the theory of transitional management

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Section: Back Casting Visioning and Scenario Buildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential for Transition to Low-Carbon Urban Road Transport in Developing Countries: Insights from Literature

Kariuki

Kuria²

2023

Int. j. adv. res.

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“…To this end, based on a previous study by the present authors (Aoki et al, 2020) and the generic backcasting process proposed by Robinson (1990), we develop the five-step procedure for designing scenarios, as depicted in Figure 2. We use the 3S simulator to have a shared understanding of the scenario design process.…”

Section: Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Evaluation criteria may include plausibility, logical consistency, comprehensiveness, creativity, and legitimacy (Alcamo et al, 2008;Glenn et al, 2003). Although most of these criteria rely on subjective assessments by the scenario design team, the workshop participants, and other stakeholders, a logicality index (LI) implemented in the 3S simulator can be used as an indicator of logical consistency in a quantitative manner (Aoki et al, 2020). The LI is defined as the proportion of arguments that are logically constructed compared to all arguments, including logically sound and logically weak arguments (Aoki et al, 2020).…”

Section: Step 5: Scenario Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although most of these criteria rely on subjective assessments by the scenario design team, the workshop participants, and other stakeholders, a logicality index (LI) implemented in the 3S simulator can be used as an indicator of logical consistency in a quantitative manner (Aoki et al, 2020). The LI is defined as the proportion of arguments that are logically constructed compared to all arguments, including logically sound and logically weak arguments (Aoki et al, 2020). Commonly, a scenario contains not only arguments logically connected with conclusions (e.g., causal relations) but also logically weak arguments (e.g., logical jumps) to balance logical consistency and creativity.…”

Section: Step 5: Scenario Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Examples of such data include local information such as demographics, climate, local government policies, culture, and energy demand. The collected data is shared with workshop participants before or during the workshops.F I G U R E 2 Procedure for designing backcasting scenarios using workshops and the 3S simulator [adapted fromAoki et al (2020)]…”

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confidence: 99%

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Computer‐aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city

Kishita

Masuda

Nakamura

et al. 2022

Futures & Foresight Science

Self Cite

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Designing backcasting scenarios is a powerful approach to the development of sustainable visions and pathways for governments or enterprises in the early stage of their policy‐making or strategic decision‐making process. To date, a number of scholars have proposed various backcasting methods, in which workshops are often used to reflect the voices of stakeholders. However, it is still a challenge to test the validity of scenarios because the process of designing backcasting scenarios is not transparent or shared among involved stakeholders. This also prevents reusing knowledge and intermediate outputs generated during the scenario design process. To solve these problems, this paper aims to develop a method for supporting a backcasting scenario design by introducing computational assistance. A scenario design support system called the sustainable society scenario (3S) simulator is used to visualize a scenario's logical sequence of the scenario in graph format. To demonstrate the proposed method, a case study for the city of Toyama, a Japanese municipality, was performed using three workshops with citizen participation. The results showed that two different scenarios, involving future visions and associated pathways, were developed by reflecting the diversified values of local citizens. The usage of the 3S simulator visualized the logical relations of the described scenarios, which consist of five blocks—problem definition, subgoals to achieve visions, measures to attain these subgoals, verification, and conclusions. This visualization is effective to increase the verifiability and reusability of the scenarios for evidence‐based policy‐making processes.

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Hybrid Decision-Making Evaluation for Future Scenarios of Cultural Ecosystem Services

Peng

Wang

2020

Land

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In the face of rapid urbanization and globalization, the continual loss of rural landscapes is occurring globally because of declining rural industries, abandoned farmlands and aging local populations. These problems highlight the versatility and diverse values of cultural ecosystem services (CES) to provide feasible responses for rural landscapes. To utilize CES and ensure the sustainability of rural landscapes in Taiwan, this study combined multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and a development evaluation structure that can effectively address interdependent factors for practical application. This study presents the importance of different evaluation compositions with clear weights. The results indicated that the “global technotopia” scenario is the highest priority, followed by the “Satoyama–Satoumi renaissance” scenario, and the other two.

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The Use of Backcasting to Promote Urban Transformation to Sustainability: The Case of Toyama City, Japan

Cited by 4 publications

References 29 publications

Potential for Transition to Low-Carbon Urban Road Transport in Developing Countries: Insights from Literature

Potential for Transition to Low-Carbon Urban Road Transport in Developing Countries: Insights from Literature

Computer‐aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city

Hybrid Decision-Making Evaluation for Future Scenarios of Cultural Ecosystem Services

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