The use of FLO2D numerical code in lahar hazard evaluation at Popocatépetl volcano: a 2001 lahar scenario

Caballero, Lizeth; Capra, Lucía

doi:10.5194/nhess-14-3345-2014

Cited by 20 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…These results can be used as a tool to foresee the effects of future laharic events in Volcán de Colima, and as a tool to improve the input parameters for the modeling of these flows along other volcanoes (e.g., the Popocatépetl volcano; see Caballero and Capra, 2014), in order to determine the hazard zonation for lahars in this volcano.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors controlling erosion/deposition phenomena related to lahars at Volcán de Colima, Mexico

Vázquez

Capra

Coviello

2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. One of the most common phenomena at Volcán de Colima is the annual development of lahars that runs mainly through the southern ravines of the edifice. Since 2011 the study and the monitoring of these flows and of the associated rainfall has been achieved by means of an instrumented station located along the Montegrande ravine, together with the systematic surveying of cross-topographic profiles of the main channel. From these, we present the comparison of the morphological changes experimented by this ravine during the 2013, 2014 and 2015 rainy seasons. The erosion/deposition effects of 11 lahars that occurred during this period of time were quantified by means of the topographic profiles taken at the beginning and at the end of the rainy seasons and before and after the major lahar event of 11 June 2013. We identified (i) an erosive zone between 2100 and 1950 m a.s.l., 8 • in slope, with an annual erosional rate of 10.3 % mainly due to the narrowness of the channel and to its high slope angle and (ii) an erosive-depositional zone, between 1900 and 1700 m a.s.l., (∼ 8 % erosion and ∼ 16 % deposition), characterized by a wider channel that decreases in slope angle (4 • ). Based on these observations, the major factors controlling the erosion/deposition rates in the Montegrande ravine are the morphology of the gully (i.e., channel bed slope and the cross section width) and the joint effect of sediment availability and accumulated rainfall. On the distal reach of the ravine, the erosion/deposition processes tend to be promoted preferentially one over the other, mostly depending on the width of the active channel. Only for extraordinary rainfall events are the largest lahars mostly erosive all along the ravine up to the distal fan where the deposition takes place. In addition, as well as the morphological characteristics of the ravine, the flow depth is a critical factor in controlling erosion, as deeper flows will promote erosion against deposition. Finally, by comparing rainfalls associated with lahars that originated after the last main eruptive episode that occurred in 2004-2005, we observed that higher accumulated rainfall was needed to trigger lahars in the 2013 and 2014 seasons, which points to a progressive stabilization of the volcano slope during a post-eruptive period. These results can be used as a tool to foresee the channel response to future volcanic activity, to improve the input parameters for lahar modeling and to better constrain the hazard zonation at Volcán de Colima.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors controlling erosion/deposition phenomena related to lahars at Volcán de Colima, Mexico

Vázquez

Capra

Coviello

2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…The µ coefficient was defined on the basis of field observations at a value of 0.15, representing the average slope of the deposition zones [75]. The ξ coefficient was set to 400 m/s 2 according to the nature of the flux observed in similar contexts in Mexico [36]. The lahar peak discharge was obtained by applying an iterative step-backwater procedure [44].…”

Section: Numerical Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The LAHARZ code has been used on Popocatépetl [30], Pico de Orizaba [31], Nevado de Toluca [32], San Martin at Tuxtlas [33], Tacaná [34] and Ceboruco [35] volcanoes. Subsequently, the FLO-2D code has been applied to analyze Popocatépetl's 2001 lahar [36] and in the Nexpayantla Gorge located on the northwestern slope of Popocatépetl volcano [37] to model the 2010 lahar. At Colima volcano, lahar peak discharges have been estimated for recent events as well using the FLO-2D code [16,38].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the 2012 Lahar in a Sector of Jamapa Gorge (Pico de Orizaba Volcano, Mexico) Using RAMMS and Tree-Ring Evidence

Franco-Ramos

Ballesteros‐Cánovas

Figueroa-García

et al. 2020

Water

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A good understanding of the frequency and magnitude of lahars is essential for the assessment of torrential hazards in volcanic terrains. In many instances, however, data on past events is scarce or incomplete, such that the evaluation of possible future risks and/or the planning of adequate countermeasures can only be done with rather limited certainty. In this paper, we present a multiidisciplinary approach based on botanical field evidence and the numerical modelling of a post-eruptive lahar that occurred in 2012 on the northern slope of the Pico de Orizaba volcano, Mexico, with the aim of reconstructing the magnitude of the event. To this end, we used the debris-flow module of the rapid mass movement simulation tool RAMMS on a highly resolved digital terrain model obtained with an unmanned aerial vehicle. The modelling was calibrated with scars found in 19 Pinus hartwegii trees that served as paleo stage indicators (PSI) of lahar magnitude in a sector of Jamapa Gorge. Using this combined assessment and calibration of RAMMS, we obtain a peak discharge of 78 m3 s−1 for the 2012 lahar event which was likely triggered by torrential rainfall during hurricane “Ernesto”. Results also show that the deviation between the modelled lahar stage (depth) and the height of PSI in trees was up to ±0.43 m. We conclude that the combination of PSI and models can be successfully used on (subtropical) volcanoes to assess the frequency, and even more so to calibrate the magnitude of lahars. The added value of the approach is particularly obvious in catchments with very scarce or no hydrological data at all and could thus also be employed for the dating and modelling of older lahars. As such, the approach and the results obtained can be used directly to support disaster risk reduction strategies at Pico de Orizaba volcano, but also in other volcanic regions.

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“…The resistive component involves different shear stress (cohesive, viscous, turbulent, and dispersive) and the MohrCoulomb shear. The model was previously tested for different sediment-laden flows, such as debris flow (Sosio et al, 2007;Boniello et al, 2010;Hsu et al, 2010), lahars (Worni et al, 2012, Caballero et al, 2014, and debris flow from dam breach (Li et al, 2011). The quadratic rheological model requires two pairs of user-defined rheological coefficients (α and β) for viscosity and yields stress as a function of the sediment concentration by volume (Cv).…”

Section: Flow Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 27 May 1937 catastrophic flow failure of gold tailings at Tlalpujahua, Michoacán, Mexico

Macías

Corona-Chávez

Sánchez-Núñez

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. On 27 May 1937, after one week of sustained heavy rainfall, a voluminous flood caused the death of at least 300 people and the destruction of the historic El Carmen church and several neighborhoods in the mining region of Tlalpujahua, Michoacán, central Mexico. This destructive flood was triggered by the breaching of the impoundment of the Los Cedros tailings and the sudden release of circa 16 Mt of water-saturated waste materials. The muddy silty flood, moving at estimated speeds of 20-25 m s −1 , was channelized along the Dos Estrellas and Tlalpujahua drainages and devastated everything along its flow path. After advancing 2.5 km downstream, the flood slammed into El Carmen church and surrounding houses at estimated speeds of ∼ 7 m s −1 , destroying many construction walls and covering the church floor with ∼ 2 m of mud and debris. Revision of eyewitness accounts and newspaper articles, together with analysis of archived photographic materials, indicated that the flood consisted of three muddy pulses. Stratigraphic relations and granulometric data for selected proximal and distal samples show that the flood behaved as a hyperconcentrated flow along most of its trajectory. A total volume of the Lamas flood deposit was estimated as 1.5 × 10 6 m 3 . The physically based bidimensional (2-D) hydraulic model FLO-2D was implemented to reproduce the breached flow (0.5 sediment concentration) with a maximum flow discharge of 8000 m 3 s −1 for a total outflow volume (sediment + water) of 2.5 × 10 6 m 3 , similar to the calculations obtained using field measurements.Even though premonitory signs of possible impoundment failure were reported days before the flood, and people living downstream were alerted, authorities ordered no evacuations or other mitigative actions. The catastrophic flood at Tlalpujahua provides a well-documented, though tragic, example of impoundment breaching of a tailings dam caused by the combined effects of intense rainfall, dam weakness, and inadequate emergency-management protocols -unfortunately an all-too-common case scenario for most of the world's mining regions.

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The use of FLO2D numerical code in lahar hazard evaluation at Popocatépetl volcano: a 2001 lahar scenario

Cited by 20 publications

References 34 publications

Factors controlling erosion/deposition phenomena related to lahars at Volcán de Colima, Mexico

Factors controlling erosion/deposition phenomena related to lahars at Volcán de Colima, Mexico

Modelling the 2012 Lahar in a Sector of Jamapa Gorge (Pico de Orizaba Volcano, Mexico) Using RAMMS and Tree-Ring Evidence

The 27 May 1937 catastrophic flow failure of gold tailings at Tlalpujahua, Michoacán, Mexico

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