The Validity of the Forecast in the Dynamics of Childhood Injuries in the Orenburg Region, Taking Into Account Biological Challenges

Abstract

The study of childhood injuries and its trends requires a detailed analysis of the regional situation, taking into account causal factors. The purpose of the study is to assess the validity of the forecast of the dynamics of childhood injuries in the Orenburg region, taking into account biological challenges. Materials and methods. The base of the study was the Orenburg region. The collection of information on medical and statistical indicators was carried out by copying information from the analytical center of Rosstat for the Orenburg region and from statistical collections of the Ministry of Health of the Orenburg region. Statistical processing of the material was performed using the STATISTICA 6.0 program. Results. An analysis of the dynamics of child injury rates for the period 2006-2015 was carried out and a forecast for 2017-2022 was made. The characteristics of the mortality rates of the child population from external causes are given. When comparing the predicted values of childhood injuries and real indicators, a negative assessment of the justification of the forecast is given. Conclusions. The forecast of an increase in injury rates in children has not been justified, which characterizes the sufficiency of the regional policy in terms of prevention and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.