The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model

Nguyen, Phuong

doi:10.1108/jes-02-2020-0062

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…To explain more specifically the impact of the monetary policy on macro-economic variables and household income distribution in Vietnam, the study conducts an experimental VAR model with macro-variables including GDP growth rate ggdp , inflation p (CPI), policy interest rate r , USD/VND exchange rate e and money supply growth rate m (representative of the monetary policy), World trade uncertainty index (representing international economic factors such as the USA-China trade war […]), world uncertainty index (representing the impact of macro-economic instability from the world such as geopolitical conflicts, Brexit events, COVID-19 epidemic […]) and Gini index (representing household income distribution) through analysis of IRF and Cholesky variance decomposition. The variables and VAR models of this study are supported by previous studies, especially Nguyen Thi Minh (2010), Pham Thi Tuyet Trinh (2017), Nguyen Van Phuong (2021), Nguyen Duc Trung et al. (2022) and Nguyen et al.…”

Section: Research Resultssupporting

confidence: 88%

“…and Gini index (representing household income distribution) through analysis of IRF and Cholesky variance decomposition. The variables and VAR models of this study are supported by previous studies, especially Nguyen Thi Minh (2010), Pham Thi Tuyet Trinh (2017), Nguyen Van Phuong (2021), Nguyen Duc Trung et al (2022 and .…”

Section: 4supporting

confidence: 87%

“…(2019) and Galí (2015). Equation (6) is built based on Galí (2015) and Nguyen Van Phuong (2021). Equations from (1) to (5) belong to the group of macro-equations, and equation (6) to the group of micro-equations, reflecting the response of households to the monetary policy through the consumption function.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The monetary policy of the State Bank of Vietnam, households and income distribution: the evidence from DSGE model

Nguyen,

Trieu,

2024

JFEP

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Purpose This paper aims to propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to assess the response from the household sector to monetary policy shocks through the consumption function. Moreover, the transmission from monetary policy to household consumption and income distribution is experimented with through the vector autoregression (VAR) model. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the authors used the maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the DSGE and VAR models with the sample from 1996Q1 to the end of 2021Q4 (104 observations). Findings The DSGE model’s results show that the response of the household sector is as expected in the theory: a monetary policy shock occurs that increases the policy interest rate by 0.29%, leading to a decrease in consumer spending of about 0.041%, the shock fades after one year. Estimates from the VAR model give similar results: a monetary policy shock narrows income inequality after about 2–3 quarters and this process tends to slow down in the long run. Research limitations/implications Based on the research results, the authors propose policy implications for the SBV to achieve the goal of price stability, and stabilizing the macro-economic environment in Vietnam. Originality/value The findings of the study have theoretical contributions and empirical scientific evidence showing the effectiveness of the implementation of the SBV’s monetary policy in the context of macro-instability, namely: flexibility, caution and coordination of different measures promptly.

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Section: Research Resultssupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: 4supporting

confidence: 87%

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The monetary policy of the State Bank of Vietnam, households and income distribution: the evidence from DSGE model

Nguyen,

Trieu,

2024

JFEP

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“…Table 3 presents specific information regarding the electricity demand and supply in Malaysia, covering the period from 2016 to the most recent data available in 2019 (Unit, 2020). An annual increase in demand was observed; however, the installed capacity surpassed the demand.…”

Section: Energy Consumption In Malaysiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of the policies and development programs for renewable energy in Malaysia: Progress, achievements and challenges

Abd Aziz,

Baharuddin,

Khalid

et al. 2024

Energy Exploration & Exploitation

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In 2022, Malaysia was ranked 28th worldwide in terms of its energy oil consumption. Energy consumption in Malaysia has been predominantly reliant on natural gas and coal in both the past and present. Oil and gas in Malaysia are predicted to be depleted in 14 years due to the high energy consumption, especially from petroleum sources. Thus, the Malaysian government aims to expand renewable energy (RE) in the country's energy mix as an alternative source of energy. As of 2022, Malaysia has generated roughly 2% of its electricity from various renewable sources, which is still far from the initial target of reaching 20% RE penetration by 2030. However, since 2017, RE has started to contribute to energy mix generation. Several policies, including an act, have been implemented in Malaysia to achieve the target in RE, but many challenges and difficulties have hindered the progress. Thus, the present study explored the current status and challenges for RE in Malaysia and discussed the effectiveness of the available energy policies and programs. The outcomes are potentially valuable to Malaysian policymakers, industries and researchers to improve their current practices for achieving the initial national RE target by 2030 as well as to move forward towards net zero emissions by 2050. This study provides a crucial roadmap for Malaysia to achieve its RE objectives and contribute significantly to the international transition towards a more environmentally friendly and sustainable future.

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The Impact of the Monetary Policy on the Household Sector in Vietnam: Bayesian DSGE Model Approach

Lanh,

Trung,

Dat

et al. 2024

Studies in Systems, Decision and Control

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The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model

Cited by 6 publications

References 78 publications

The monetary policy of the State Bank of Vietnam, households and income distribution: the evidence from DSGE model

The monetary policy of the State Bank of Vietnam, households and income distribution: the evidence from DSGE model

Review of the policies and development programs for renewable energy in Malaysia: Progress, achievements and challenges

The Impact of the Monetary Policy on the Household Sector in Vietnam: Bayesian DSGE Model Approach

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