The Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre

Poedts, Stefaan; Kochanov, Andrey; Lani, Andrea; Scolini, Camilla; Verbeke, C.; Hosteaux, Skralan; Chané, Emmanuel; Deconinck, H.; Mihalache, N; Diet, Fabian; Heynderickx, D.; Keyser, Johan De; Donder, Erwin De; Crosby, Norma; Echim, Marius; Rodriguez, L.; Vansintjan, R.; Verstringe, F.; Mampaey, Benjamin; Horne, Richard B.; Glauert, S. A.; Jiggens, Piers; Keil, Ralf; Glover, Alexi; Déprez, Grégoire; Luntama, Juha-Pekka

doi:10.1051/swsc/2020012

Cited by 20 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Finally, we point out that the inner boundary is at 0.1 au in the EUHFORIA model and, hence, particle acceleration in the low corona is neglected. Coupling to a coronal MHD model in EUHFORIA 2.0 (Poedts et al 2020) with the iPATH model, in a similar fashion as done in Li et al (2021) for the AWSoM and iPATH, will be pursued in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the 2020 November 29 solar energetic particle event using EUHFORIA and iPATH models

Ding¹,

Wijsen

et al. 2023

Preprint

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<p>We present the implementation of a coupling between EUropean Heliospheric FORcasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) and improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) models. In this work, we simulate the widespread solar energetic particle (SEP) event of 2020 November 29 and compare the simulated time-intensity profiles with measurements at Parker Solar Probe (PSP), the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)-A, SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), and Solar Orbiter (SolO). We examined the temporal evolution of shock parameters and particle fluxes during this event and we find that adopting a realistic solar wind background can significantly impact the expansion of the shock and, consequently, the shock parameters. Time-intensity profiles with an energetic storm particle event at PSP are well reproduced from the simulations. In addition, the simulated and observed time-intensity profiles of protons show a similar two-phase enhancement at STA. These results illustrate that modeling a shock using a realistic solar wind is crucial in determining the characteristics of SEP events. The decay phase of the modeled time-intensity profiles at Earth is in good agreement with the observations, indicating the importance of perpendicular diffusion in widespread SEP events. Taking into account the possible large curved magnetic field line connecting to SolO, the modeled time-intensity profiles show a good agreement with the observation. We suggest that the broadly distorted magnetic field lines, which are due to a stream interaction region, may be a key factor in understanding the observed SEPs at SolO.</p>

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the 2020 November 29 solar energetic particle event using EUHFORIA and iPATH models

Ding¹,

Wijsen

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Not all of these products were necessarily designed to be used as inputs for coronal modeling and space-weather previsions. The recommended products are the zero-point corrected ones (mrzqs and mrnqs), but for practical reasons, it turns out that some facilities still use the non-corrected synchronic products (mrbqs) (Poedts et al 2020a), which makes them still relevant to study. The Janus maps were designed to more closely reproduce sudden changes in magnetic flux in the solar disk facing Earth.…”

Section: Notementioning

confidence: 99%

COCONUT, a Novel Fast-converging MHD Model for Solar Corona Simulations. II. Assessing the Impact of the Input Magnetic Map on Space-weather Forecasting at Minimum of Activity

Perri

Kuźma

Brchnelova

et al. 2023

ApJ

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This paper is dedicated to the new implicit unstructured coronal code COCONUT, which aims at providing fast and accurate inputs for space-weather forecasting as an alternative to empirical models. We use all 20 available magnetic maps of the solar photosphere covering the date of 2019 July 2, which corresponds to a solar eclipse on Earth. We use the same standard preprocessing on all maps, then perform coronal MHD simulations with the same numerical and physical parameters. We conclude by quantifying the performance of each map using three indicators from remote-sensing observations: white-light total solar eclipse images for the streamers’ edges, EUV synoptic maps for coronal holes, and white-light coronagraph images for the heliospheric current sheet. We discuss the performance of space-weather forecasting and show that the choice of the input magnetic map has a strong impact. We find performances between 24% and 85% for the streamers’ edges, 24%–88% for the coronal hole boundaries, and a mean deviation between 4° and 12° for the heliospheric current sheet position. We find that the HMI runs perform better on all indicators, with GONG-ADAPT being the second-best choice. HMI runs perform better for the streamers’ edges, and GONG-ADAPT for polar coronal holes, HMI synchronic for equatorial coronal holes, and the streamer belt. We especially illustrate the importance of the filling of the poles. This demonstrates that the solar poles have to be taken into account even for ecliptic plane previsions.

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“…The Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG; Harvey et al 1996) is a program operated by the National Solar Observatory, whose six telescopes provide 24-hour coverage, low-noise, near-real-time, precise synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic field (Hill 2018). The reliability, high cadence, and spatial coverage of GONG magnetograms make them appealing for operationally-oriented space weather applications, including the WSA-Enlil model employed at NOAA/SWPC (Pizzo et al 2011;Steenburgh et al 2014) and the EUHFORIA model employed at the ESA Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre (Poedts et al 2020). One factor impacting the quality of the magnetogram observations from the GONG network stems from non-uniformities and small imperfections in each observatory's magnetogram modulator.…”

Section: Gong Zero-point Correctedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling CME encounters at Parker Solar Probe with OSPREI: Dependence on photospheric and coronal conditions

Ledvina¹,

Palmerio²,

Kay³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptions of plasma from the Sun that travel through interplanetary space and may encounter Earth. CMEs often enclose a magnetic flux rope (MFR), the orientation of which largely determines the CME's geoeffectiveness. Current operational CME models do not model MFRs, but a number of research ones do, including the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information (OSPREI) model. Aims. We report the sensitivity of OSPREI to a range of user-selected photospheric and coronal conditions. Methods. We model four separate CMEs observed in situ by Parker Solar Probe (PSP). We vary the input photospheric conditions using four input magnetograms (HMI Synchronic, HMI Synoptic, GONG Synoptic Zero-Point Corrected, and GONG ADAPT). To vary the coronal field reconstruction, we employ the Potential-Field Source-Surface (PFSS) model and we vary its source-surface height in the range 1.5-3.0 R with 0.1 R increments. Results. We find that both the input magnetogram and PFSS source surface often affect the evolution of the CME as it propagates through the Sun's corona into interplanetary space, and therefore the accuracy of the MFR prediction compared to in-situ data at PSP. There is no obvious best combination of input magnetogram and PFSS source surface height. Conclusions. The OSPREI model is moderately sensitive to the input photospheric and coronal conditions. Based on where the source region of the CME is located on the Sun, there may be best practices when selecting an input magnetogram to use.

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The Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre

Cited by 20 publications

References 21 publications

Modeling the 2020 November 29 solar energetic particle event using EUHFORIA and iPATH models

Modeling the 2020 November 29 solar energetic particle event using EUHFORIA and iPATH models

COCONUT, a Novel Fast-converging MHD Model for Solar Corona Simulations. II. Assessing the Impact of the Input Magnetic Map on Space-weather Forecasting at Minimum of Activity

Modeling CME encounters at Parker Solar Probe with OSPREI: Dependence on photospheric and coronal conditions

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