The water, climate and energy nexus in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil: an analysis of decadal climate variability

Costa, José Micael Ferreira da; Silveira, Cleiton da Silva; Júnior, Francisco das Chagas Vasconcelos; Marcos, Antonio Duarte; Silva, Marx Vinícius Maciel da; Ramos, Sérgio; Porto, Victor Costa; Filho, Francisco de Assis de Souza; Martins, Eduardo

doi:10.1080/02626667.2021.1985124

Cited by 4 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…The Retiro Baixo reservoir was the only reservoir analyzed that has failures in the historical period, presenting a Reliability index equal to 0% for the irrigation and industry demands in the historical period and in all analyzed scenarios. These results coincide with those obtained in the studies of [5,31]. For human supply demand, there was a reduction from 100% in the historical and D1/SSP2-4.5 scenarios to 0% in the D4/SSP5-8.5 scenario.…”

Section: Reliability Resilience Vulnerability and Sustainability Indexessupporting

confidence: 89%

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Impact of Climate Change and Consumptive Demands on the Performance of São Francisco River Reservoirs, Brazil

Silva¹,

Lima²,

Silveira³

2023

Preprint

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Climate change in the coming decades could intensify extreme events such as severe droughts. Combined with the possible increase of water demands, these changes exert a large pressure on the water systems. In order to confirm this assumption, a set of scenarios was proposed in this study to consider the combined impact of climate changes and the increase in water demand on the main multiple-use reservoirs of São Francisco River, Brazil. For this purpose, five CMIP6 climate models were used considering two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The naturalized and withdraw streamflows were estimated to the adopted reser-voirs considering all existing, new and projected demands. The conjunction of scenarios indicat-ed an increase in Potential Evapotranspiration, a possible significant reduction in water availa-bility, a growth in water demand mainly for irrigation and a substantial reduction in the perfor-mance of the evaluated reservoirs.

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Section: Reliability Resilience Vulnerability and Sustainability Indexessupporting

confidence: 89%

“…In the study by [31], for example, he used fixed consumptive demands for the operation of the hydroelectric system at SFRB to verify the influence of low frequency phenomena on hydroelectric power generation. He claims that it was a limitation to use fixed demands, as the results of the impacts may have been smoothed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change and Consumptive Demands on the Performance of São Francisco River Reservoirs, Brazil

Silva¹,

Lima²,

Silveira³

2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The Retiro Baixo reservoir was the only reservoir analyzed that has failures in the historical period, presenting a Reliability index equal to 0% for the irrigation and industry demands in the historical period and in all analyzed scenarios. These results coincide with those obtained in the studies of [5,36]. For human supply demand, there was a reduction from 100% in the historical and D1/SSP2-4.5 scenarios to 0% in the D4/SSP5-8.5 scenario.…”

Section: Consumptive Demands Projectionssupporting

confidence: 89%

“…In the study by [36], for example, fixed consumptive demands were used for the operation of the hydroelectric system at SFRB to verify the influence of low frequency phenomena on hydroelectric power generation. He claims that it was a limitation to use fixed demands, as the results of the impacts may have been smoothed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change and Consumptive Demands on the Performance of São Francisco River Reservoirs, Brazil

Silva

Lima

Silveira

2023

Climate

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Climate change in the coming decades could intensify extreme events such as severe droughts. Combined with the possible increase of water demands, these changes exert a great deal of pressure on the water systems. In order to confirm this assumption, a set of scenarios was proposed in this study to consider the combined impact of climate changes and the increase in water demand on the main multiple-use reservoirs of São Francisco River, Brazil. For this purpose, five CMIP6 climate models were used, considering two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The affluent natural flows and regulated flows were estimated to the adopted reservoirs considering all existing, new and projected demands. The combination of scenarios indicated an increase in Potential Evapotranspiration; possible significant reduction in water availability, with a decrease in precipitation with a magnitude of −15% in the most pessimistic scenarios and a decrease in flows with a magnitude varying between −5% and −40% in the Sobradinho and Três Marias reservoirs; growth in water demand, mainly for irrigation, with annual rates of 6.80%, 7.42%, 10.99% and 9.29% for Itaparica, Sobradinho, Três Marias and Retiro Baixo, respectively; and a substantial reduction in the performance of the evaluated reservoirs, mainly for the Retiro Baixo and Itaparica reservoirs, which showed a high vulnerability index and a low sustainability index.

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“…The influence of climatic factors on the streamflow observed in SFRB, such as the low-frequency oscillations of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, was found in several studies [16][17][18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anthropic Changes in Land Use and Land Cover and Their Impacts on the Hydrological Variables of the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

et al. 2022

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The growing impact of human activities on the environment has increased their influence on the planet’s natural cycles, especially in relation to the hydrological cycle of watersheds. The fundamental processes for its water and energy balance have been affected, which influences water availability and surface streamflow. This study sought to evaluate the anthropogenic impacts on the hydrological cycle of the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB), Brazil, between 1985 and 2015. The study area comprised SFRB and 10 sub-basins for general and specific analyses, respectively. Analyzed data consisted of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC), precipitation, streamflow, and temperature. The methodology incorporated: (i) assessment of LULC dynamics; (ii) trend analysis with the Mann–Kendall method and Sen’s Slope; and (iii) decomposition of total streamflow variation via Budyko’s hypothesis and climate elasticity of streamflow. As a result, it was possible to detect an anthropic modification of SFRB, which is the main component of its streamflow variation, in addition to increased streamflow sensitivity to climate variations. In addition, the divergent behavior in the trends of hydrological variables suggests a change in the streamflow response to precipitation. Therefore, the results allowed us to identify and quantify the impacts of anthropic modifications on the hydrological cycle of the SFRB.

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The water, climate and energy nexus in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil: an analysis of decadal climate variability

Cited by 4 publications

References 70 publications

Impact of Climate Change and Consumptive Demands on the Performance of São Francisco River Reservoirs, Brazil

Impact of Climate Change and Consumptive Demands on the Performance of São Francisco River Reservoirs, Brazil

Impact of Climate Change and Consumptive Demands on the Performance of São Francisco River Reservoirs, Brazil

Anthropic Changes in Land Use and Land Cover and Their Impacts on the Hydrological Variables of the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

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