The Western Progression of Lyme Disease: Infectious and Nonclonal
            <i>Borrelia burgdorferi Sensu Lato</i>
            Populations in Grand Forks County, North Dakota

Stone, Brandee L.; Russart, Nathan M.; Gaultney, Robert A.; Floden, Angela M.; Vaughan, Jefferson A.; Brissette, Catherine A.

doi:10.1128/aem.02422-14

Cited by 21 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Perhaps most striking is the recognized expansion of seropositive dogs on the northern border of the contiguous U.S. along the Canadian border, including North Dakota, and the border of Northern Montana and Idaho. The westward expansion of canine B. burgdorferi seroprevalence from Minnesota into North Dakota mirrors recent reports that Lyme disease is poised to be a significant human public health concern in North Dakota [68]. Further, this observation supports and extends recent concern over northward expansion of B. burgdorferi infected ticks into Canada from the Northeastern and Midwestern United States [69, 70].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi, causative agent of Lyme disease, in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States

et al. 2017

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This paper models the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi in domestic dogs in the United States using climate, geographic, and societal factors. We then use this model to forecast the prevalence of antibodies to B. burgdorferi in dogs for 2016. The data available for this study consists of 11,937,925 B. burgdorferi serologic test results collected at the county level within the 48 contiguous United States from 2011-2015. Using the serologic data, a baseline B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence map was constructed through the use of spatial smoothing techniques after temporal aggregation; i.e., head-banging and Kriging. In addition, several covariates purported to be associated with B. burgdorferi prevalence were collected on the same spatio-temporal granularity, and include forestation, elevation, water coverage, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, population density, and median household income. A Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to analyze these data, for the purposes of identifying significant risk factors and for constructing disease forecasts. The fidelity of the forecasting technique was assessed using historical data, and a Lyme disease forecast for dogs in 2016 was constructed. The correlation between the county level model and baseline B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence estimates from 2011 to 2015 is 0.894, illustrating that the Bayesian spatio-temporal CAR model provides a good fit to these data. The fidelity of the forecasting technique was assessed in the usual fashion; i.e., the 2011-2014 data was used to forecast the 2015 county level prevalence, with comparisons between observed and predicted being made. The weighted (to acknowledge sample size) correlation between 2015 county level observed prevalence and 2015 forecasted prevalence is 0.978. A forecast for the prevalence of B. burgdorferi antibodies in domestic dogs in 2016 is also provided. The forecast presented from this model can be used to alert veterinarians in areas likely to see above average B. burgdorferi antibody prevalence in dogs in the upcoming year. In addition, because dogs and humans can be exposed to ticks in similar habitats, these data may ultimately prove useful in predicting areas where human Lyme disease risk may emerge.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi, causative agent of Lyme disease, in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States

et al. 2017

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“…Paralleling this expansion of the tick’s known range in Minnesota, Robinson et al (2014) noted increases in both the numbers and geographical distributions of I. scapularis -borne diseases in Minnesota from 1996 through 2011. The north-westerly expansion appears to have continued into eastern North Dakota (Russart et al 2014, Stone et al 2015), beyond or near the limit of habitat previously predicted to be suitable for I. scapularis (Estrada-Pena 2002, Brownstein et al 2003, Diuk-Wasser et al 2010). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…Rising case counts and geographical expansion of Lyme disease endemic areas have been attributed to range expansion of I. scapularis in the eastern United States (Bacon et al 2008, Rydzewski et al 2012, Lee et al 2013, Brinkerhoff et al 2014, Robinson et al 2014, Wang et al 2014, Khatchikian et al 2015, Kugeler et al 2015, Stone et al 2015). However, because of a lack of systematic surveillance of I. scapularis and I. pacificus , national trends in the geographic distribution of these medically important ticks are difficult to document.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

County-Scale Distribution ofIxodes scapularisandIxodes pacificus(Acari: Ixodidae) in the Continental United States

2016

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The blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is the primary vector to humans in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi, as well as causative agents of anaplasmosis and babesiosis. Its close relative in the far western United States, the western blacklegged tick Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls, is the primary vector to humans in that region of the Lyme disease and anaplasmosis agents. Since 1991, when standardized surveillance and reporting began, Lyme disease case counts have increased steadily in number and in geographical distribution in the eastern United States. Similar trends have been observed for anaplasmosis and babesiosis. To better understand the changing landscape of risk of human exposure to disease agents transmitted by I. scapularis and I. pacificus, and to document changes in their recorded distribution over the past two decades, we updated the distribution of these species from a map published in 1998. The presence of I. scapularis has now been documented from 1,420 (45.7%) of the 3,110 continental United States counties, as compared with 111 (3.6%) counties for I. pacificus. Combined, these vectors of B. burgdorferi and other disease agents now have been identified in a total of 1,531 (49.2%) counties spread across 43 states. This marks a 44.7% increase in the number of counties that have recorded the presence of these ticks since the previous map was presented in 1998, when 1,058 counties in 41 states reported the ticks to be present. Notably, the number of counties in which I. scapularis is considered established (six or more individuals or one or more life stages identified in a single year) has more than doubled since the previous national distribution map was published nearly two decades ago. The majority of county status changes occurred in the North-Central and Northeastern states, whereas the distribution in the South remained fairly stable. Two previously distinct foci for I. scapularis in the Northeast and North-Central states appear to be merging in the Ohio River Valley to form a single contiguous focus. Here we document a shifting landscape of risk for human exposure to medically important ticks and point to areas of re-emergence where enhanced vector surveillance and control may be warranted.

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“…Ixodes scapularis , the blacklegged tick, is the main vector in northeastern and upper midwestern United States and Canada while I . pacificus is the major vector in western United States and western Canada [9,10]. The primary vectors of LD in Europe and Asia are I .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Accuracy of Diagnostic Tests for Lyme Disease in Humans, A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of North American Research

et al. 2016

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There has been an increasing incidence of Lyme disease (LD) in Canada and the United States corresponding to the expanding range of the Ixodes tick vector and Lyme disease agent (Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto). There are many diagnostic tests for LD available in North America, all of which have some performance issues, and physicians are concerned about the appropriate use and interpretation of these tests. The objective of this systematic review is to summarize the North American evidence on the accuracy of diagnostic tests and test regimes at various stages of LD. Included in the review are 48 studies on diagnostic tests used in North America published since 1995. Thirteen studies examined a two-tier serological test protocol vs. clinical diagnosis, 24 studies examined single assays vs. clinical diagnosis, 9 studies examined single immunoblot vs. clinical diagnosis, 7 studies compared culture or PCR direct detection methods vs. clinical diagnosis, 22 studies compared two or more tests with each other and 8 studies compared a two-tiered serological test protocol to another test. Recent studies examining the sensitivity and specificity of various test protocols noted that the Immunetics® C6 B. burgdorferi ELISA™ and the two tier approach have superior specificity compared to proposed replacements, and the CDC recommended western blot algorithm has equivalent or superior specificity over other proposed test algorithms. There is a dramatic increase in test sensitivity with progression of B. burgdorferi infection from early to late LD. Direct detection methods, culture and PCR of tissue or blood samples were not as sensitive or timely compared to serological testing. It was also noted that there are a large number of both commercial (n = 42) and in-house developed tests used by private laboratories which have not been evaluated in the primary literature.

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The Western Progression of Lyme Disease: Infectious and Nonclonal Borrelia burgdorferi Sensu Lato Populations in Grand Forks County, North Dakota

Cited by 21 publications

References 44 publications

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi, causative agent of Lyme disease, in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting the prevalence of antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi, causative agent of Lyme disease, in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States

County-Scale Distribution ofIxodes scapularisandIxodes pacificus(Acari: Ixodidae) in the Continental United States

The Accuracy of Diagnostic Tests for Lyme Disease in Humans, A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of North American Research

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