The Wisdom of Crowds: Impact of Collective Size and Expertise Transfer on Collective Performance

Abstract

We explore the performance of collectives on judgments tasks along two dimensions: crowd-size and expertise transferability. Based on an experimental investigation of the judgment ability of 478 subjects and sub-samples thereof, we identify that crowd-size matters, but only within limits. We also identify limited transferability of expertise, largely based on an anchor-and-adjust heuristic. Collective size and expertise transfer effects are moderated by task difficulty and are strongest for tasks in a medium difficulty range.

Crowd characteristics and crowd wisdom: Evidence from an online investment community

“…Thus, we put forward the following hypothesis:

H4: Crowd size moderates the positive relationship between experience diversity and crowd performance; that is, experience diversity exerts a more positive influence on crowd performance for a larger crowd.

When crowd size becomes larger, it is easy for the crowd to become similar (Hong & Page, ). In practice, samples of 20, or even 10, lead to convergence (Wagner & Ayoung, ). The independence of crowd participants and crowd size work collectively on crowd performance.…”

“…Crowd size is an important factor for a wise crowd with sufficient diversity (Wagner & Ayoung, 2014). According to the study of Arazy et al (2006), the number of content cocreators is positively related to Wikipedia's content quality.…”

“…Crowd wisdom is the product of disagreement and conflict, not consensus (Surowiecki, 2005), but with the crowd size becoming too large, it is easy for crowd members to become similar (Hong & Page, 2004) and lack diversity, inducing consensus. The quality of collective estimates would depend on the size of the crowd, with diminishing marginal returns for size increases (Wagner & Ayoung, 2014). The crowd size and diversity must work collectively for improving crowd performance (Hong & Page, 2004).…”

“…When crowd size becomes larger, it is easy for the crowd to become similar (Hong & Page, 2004). In practice, samples of 20, or even 10, lead to convergence (Wagner & Ayoung, 2014). The independence of crowd participants and crowd size work collectively on crowd performance.…”

Intelligent collective: some issues with collective cardinality

“…In Wagner and Suh (2014), 500 members were invited for solving a range of judgment problems such as forecasting the temperature of a region, and guessing the weights of specific amounts of coffee, milk, gasoline, air, and gold. The authors have found evidence that the larger collectives we use, the higher accuracy we get.…”