Abstract:The reversal of capital flows from the banking sector, rather than portfolio equity investment, has long been considered a main reason for the severity of the East Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. This study analyzes the factors behind the boom and bust of bank lending, focusing on loans from private banks in seven OECD countries to nine East Asian economies during the 1990-2004 period. Our findings suggest that political instability and weaknesses in the legal, judicial, and bureaucratic systems help explain the continued stagnation in lending after the financial crisis. Thus, institutional reforms are critical for East Asia to successfully compete for international bank financing.
JEL Classification Numbers: C23, F11, F34, G21, O53Keywords: Foreign Bank Loans; East Asia; Gravity Model; Trade Intensity; Financial Risk; Law and Order; Bureaucratic Quality 2 For most developing economies in East Asia, foreign borrowing from the developed world has provided much-needed capital to finance rapid economic growth, especially during the 1980s and 1990s. 1 Not surprisingly, the sudden reversal of capital flows from the banking sector was a main reason for the severity of the East Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s.Accompanying the collapse of economic growth in major East Asian countries was a sharp decline in loans from OECD-based commercial banks, in particular loans from Japanese institutions. The hardest hit economies, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and South Korea, which had experienced net private inflows averaging around US$160 billion per annum in 1995 and 1996 (of which about half were short-term commercial bank loans), saw total foreign liabilities drop by around 45 percent in 1998, as international banks were unwilling to roll over existing loans. This paper attempts to examine some of the factors that contributed to the boom and bust in bank lending to East Asian countries between 1990 and 2004. Little work has been done on the determinants of international bank lending to these countries during the pre-and post-1997 financial crisis periods. 2 Instead, research so far has focused on the cross-border 1 The causal effect of the banking sector's liquidity on economic growth has been well studied (Levine, 2005). 2 A few papers such as Jeanneau and Micu (2002), Kawai and Liu (2002), Rose and Spiegel (2004), Papaioannou (2004), and Aviat and Courdacier (2007) looked at international bank lending to emerging market economies as a whole (grouping emerging markets in East Asia with those in Latin America and Africa). (e) Did the quality of the bureaucracy in the borrowing country matter?The paper proceeds as follows. Section I presents a literature survey and highlights various stylized facts about the pattern of international bank lending to East Asia. Section II considers different specifications of a gravity model for asset flows. Section III describes the data and estimation methods. Section IV presents the key empirical findings for the whole sample of OECD an...