The World Turned Upside Down: Below Replacement Fertility, Changing Preferences and Family-Friendly Public Policy in 21 OECD Countries

Abstract

Over the past two decades, a decline in birth rates in advanced industrialized societies to levels well below those required for population replacement has been accompanied by a major change in the cross-national incidence of fertility. This has, in turn, given rise to a massive transformation in traditional cross-national patterns of relationships between fertility and other variables. Whereas previously the countries with the highest period fertility rates were those in which family-oriented cultural traditions were most pronounced and in which women's labour market participation was least, these relationships are now wholly reversed. This study uses data for 21 OECD countries to provide a more thorough and systematic mapping of the linkages between fertility, cultural values, economic structure and social policy than has hitherto been attempted in the literature, while simultaneously addressing some of the theoretical and methodological issues that arise in explaining a reversal of this magnitude. It argues that seemingly anomalous linkages with cultural traditions and employment structure are consequences of women's changing work and family preferences and of cross-national differences in the adoption of family-friendly public policy.

Economic Determinants of Divorce Among Dual-Earner Couples: Jews in Israel

“…According to previous studies (e.g., Castles 2003;Okun et al 2007), public sector employment provides conditions that are conducive to the combining of paid work and family life for women. Due to the family-friendly working conditions in the public sector relative to the private sector, it may be expected that public sector employment will reduce the risk of divorce among dual-earner couples.…”

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

“…Computations based on cohort fertility data and projections presented by Myrskylä et al (2013, Table 2) Prior to the fertility upturns of the early 21 st century, a notable reversal in an aggregate correlation between socio-economic and cultural indicators and fertility rates occurred (Castles 2003). Factors traditionally associated with low fertility rates became associated with higher fertility when most developed countries were compared with each other (see also Section 2.1 below).…”

Welfare state context, female labour-market attachment and childbearing in Germany and Denmark

“…Based on cross-sectional correlations of female employment and fertility rates in OECD countries, Esping-Andersen (1999) showed how the association between female employment and fertility changed from being negative in the 1980s to positive in the 1990s. Esping-Andersen's empirical approach has been extended, discussed and criticized in further studies (Ahn and Mira 2002;Castles 2003;Kögel 2003); however, his argument has remained essential for the understanding of fertility dynamics in contemporary Europe. Accordingly, countries that are unable to modernize their family policies by improving the compatibility of employment and family life will experience reduced fertility; countries that resolve the incompatibility of work and family life will experience higher fertility.…”

“…From these considerations it follows that social policies and institutions that enable or hinder mothers' participation in the labour market also influence fertility behaviour (Bernhardt 1993;Castles 2003;Esping-Andersen 1999Luci and Thévenon 2011;McDonald 2000;Neyer and Andersson 2008;Rindfuss and Brewster 1996;Sørensen 1991). Furthermore, welfare-state setups, social institutions and social policies are likely to influence the correlation between women's labour-force participation and their fertility (e.g., Neyer 2013).…”