The Zeitgeist of Futures?

Cole, Sam

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2008.07.043

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…Again, it might be possible to test this via word-use over time. I played superficially with this in recent article (the Zeitgeist of Futures), empirically rich because of the web (in this case, Futures on-line), and theoretically inept (because of my epistemological ignorance) [36]. Fortunately, via the Internet it is possible to see how people are thinking about these issues now or even centuries prior.…”

Section: Strange Timesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Alliterative logic: A theory for postnormal times

Cole¹

2011

Futures

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Section: Strange Timesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Alliterative logic: A theory for postnormal times

Cole¹

2011

Futures

Self Cite

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“…During this period, practitioners developed techniques for mobilizing expert knowledge in statistics, social science, and electronic computing to improve corporate strategy and government policy. In the 1970s, with the development of scenario planning, technology forecasting, and facilitation methods, the field assumed a shape that is still familiar today (Gharmari-Tabrizi, 2005;Bradfield et al, 2005;Cole, 2008;Masini, 2006). Recently several authors have argued that the kinds of challenges we face in the twenty-first century will be different than those we faced during the Cold War, and the methods we developed them need to be revised.…”

Section: Twenty-first Century Challenges Are Differentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Futures 2.0: rethinking the discipline

Pang

2010

Foresight

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Purpose -This paper seeks to be a thought experiment. If the field of futures were invented today, it asks, what would it look like? What would be its intellectual foundations? Who would it serve and influence? And how would its ideas and insights be put into practice? Design/methodology/approach -It reviews the literatures on experimental psychology and neuroscience to identify biases that affect people's ability to think about and act upon the future, studies of expertise that map the limits of professional judgment, and recent work on the nature of critical challenges of the twenty-first century.Findings -It argues that futurists could develop social software tools, prediction markets, and other technologies to improve the individual and collective accuracy and impact of work. Choice architectures and nudges to lengthen ''the shadow of the future'' of everyday choices made by ordinary people could also be used.Research limitations/implications -The paper argues for new directions in the practice of futures, to make the field better-suited to deal with the challenges confronting an increasingly complex, chaotic, and contingent world. Practical implications -The development of tools to augment professional activity, and adoption of choice architectures and nudges as media for communicating about the future, could improve futures work and its impact, but lay the foundation for other methodological innovations.Originality/value -The paper contributes to the ongoing discussion about where futures should go.

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“…Through a steady stream of publications (Cole, 2008), scenario analysis has developed into a coherent cluster of research within the 'broad foresight' literature (Lu, Hsieh, & Liu, 2016). It has been considered as a paradigm of its own within futures studies (Mannermaa, 1991), while others even argue that scenarios are 'devouring futures studies' (Sardar, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods and contexts: Challenges of planning with scenarios in a hospital’s division

Lamé

Jouini

Cardinal

2019

Futures

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Scenario planning is presented as a well-suited approach in uncertain environments such as healthcare systems. In this article, we report a project aimed at defining scenarios in the cancer division of a large hospital. The approach chosen was based on La Prospective school of scenario planning. The project stopped before scenarios could be elaborated, for lack of knowledge available on contextual factors influencing the system. From the analysis of this case study, we elaborate on the adequacy of scenario planning in the context of small healthcare delivery organisations. We conclude that most forms of scenario planning are unlikely to work in these cases, especially in the La Prospective approach. Perspectives are drawn for scenario planning in hospitals, and for research on the fit between scenario approaches and application contexts, in order to understand what approaches work in which circumstances. Highlights  "La Prospective" scenario project in French public hospital division  Patterns in French healthcare system too uncertain for structuralist-functionalist approach  Small organisation means limited knowledge available for scenario planning  Context (small organisation) challenging for scenario planning as a whole  More research needed on method-context fit in scenario planning

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The Zeitgeist of Futures?

Cited by 5 publications

References 1 publication

Alliterative logic: A theory for postnormal times

Alliterative logic: A theory for postnormal times

Futures 2.0: rethinking the discipline

Methods and contexts: Challenges of planning with scenarios in a hospital’s division

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