Theoretical and Methodological Foundations of Uncertainty Modeling in Real Estate Markets

Abstract

Motivation: The need to improve the accuracy and reliability of market valuation and risk assessment in real estate markets, especially under conditions of uncertainty.Aim: To integrate theoretical foundations and methodological approaches for modeling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in real estate markets using credal networks and confidence boxes (c-boxes).Approach: This paper presents a comprehensive theoretical and methodological framework for uncertainty modeling in real estate markets, focusing on the application of credal networks and confidence boxes. It does not include empirical validation or practical case studies, instead providing a detailed conceptual and methodological discussion.Results: The proposed method demonstrates significant improvements in uncertainty quantification and market analysis accuracy in theoretical terms, offering valuable insights for investors, urban planners, and policymakers. However, empirical validation is suggested for future research to confirm practical applicability.