Theoretical Aspects of Currency Crises

Antczak, Rafał

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1445371

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive definition of a contemporaneous currency crisis and to illustrate this definition by examples of currency crises of the 1990s. The discussion follows a text on theoretical aspects of currency crises [Antczak, 2000], where the occurrence of such crisis is described [after Eichengreen et al, 1994] as a change in either a country's exchange rate, its level of foreign reserves, or its interest rates. Thus, in the following parts, there is an illustration of what was happening with these -and some other -macroeconomic variables during the times of most recent currency crises.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Indicators of Currency Crisis: Empirical Analysis of Some Emerging and Transition Economies

Jakubiak

2000

SSRN Journal

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Indicators of Currency Crisis: Empirical Analysis of Some Emerging and Transition Economies

Jakubiak

2000

SSRN Journal

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“…Three factors can be used to distinguish the contagion effect from traditional transmission [Mazurek, 2011: 21;Antczak, 2000]:…”

Section: The Issue Of Crisis Transmission In Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of Global Economic Crisis in 2022 and the Mechanism of Transmission of Economic Shocks between the Main Areas of the Global Economy

Pera¹

2022

Stud Sieci Uniw Pogran

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Goal – the aim of the study is to analyze the main economic areas of the global economy in terms of the possibility of transferring the crisis in relation to the current global economic situation. Research methodology – the analysis conducted was based on literature research; the empirical analysis used causation in the Granger sense and Pearson’s linear correlation coefficient. Score/results – The existence of the so–called “locomotive effect” was observed for a group of countries: USA–CSSA, CSSA–USA, EA–LA, EA–CSSA, LA–EA, CSSA–EA, MECA–LA, MECA–CSSA, LA–MECA, CSSA–MECA, EDA–CSSA, CSSA–EDA, LA–CSSA, CSSA–LA, meaning a positive domestic shock transmitted to the economic partner, among the countries studied, the analysis is carried out based on annual data of GDP values as a measure of economic activity. CSSA remains the safest economic area and also the most neutral in view of the current global economic and political situation. In the WPE, there is a maximum [full] correlation of 1 for: EDA–USA, MECA–EA, EDA–EA, MECA–EDA and EDA–MECA. These are currently the most dangerous and crisis–prone areas, with potential for transferring crises between them. It is facilitated by territorial cohesion and the geopolitical situation between countries in these economic regions. Relatively high correlations can also be observed in these areas between the analyzed factors: IMP, IMG, IDCF and PC. The risk of transferring a crisis resulting from war between the areas mentioned is the highest here. Other correlations in terms of: USA–EA, USA–LA, EA–USA, LA–USA, LA–EDA, EDA–LA remain at weak or average levels. This is influenced by geographic distance and the lack of strong economic and political ties. Originality/value – the originality of the study results from the topic undertaken. Identification of potential crisis areas and channels of crisis transmission in the current global geopolitical situation constitutes an added value.

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“…High values of the ratio sign over-borrowing from abroad with heavy unsustainable debt burden (Antczak, 2000).…”

Section: External Debt / Exportsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determinants of Financial Crises in Russia and Other Transition Economies: An Empirical Test

Zinkovskaya

2008

JJCE

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Abstract： The goal of this study is to assess the relative contributions of different vulnerability factors to the crises in Russia and other European transition economies. The results of probit estimations and decomposition of simulated crisis probabilities suggest that external capital flows and financial sector weaknesses played a crucial part in undermining the stability of the currencies. The government finance problems and real appreciation, commonly thought to be the main causes of the crises, had a comparatively minor role in the financial turmoil in Russia and other transition economies. ［Keywords： financial crisis, currency crisis, exchange market pressure, probit］ [Article]

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Theoretical Aspects of Currency Crises

Cited by 8 publications

References 33 publications

Indicators of Currency Crisis: Empirical Analysis of Some Emerging and Transition Economies

Indicators of Currency Crisis: Empirical Analysis of Some Emerging and Transition Economies

Risk of Global Economic Crisis in 2022 and the Mechanism of Transmission of Economic Shocks between the Main Areas of the Global Economy

Determinants of Financial Crises in Russia and Other Transition Economies: An Empirical Test

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