There is no evidence for order mattering; therefore, order does not matter

Abstract

Within the limited field of research on teachers’ probabilistic knowledge, incorrect, inconsistent and even inexplicable responses to probabilistic tasks are most often accounted for by utilizing theories, frameworks and models, which are based upon heuristic and informal reasoning. More recently, the emergence of new research based upon logical fallacies has been proving effective in accounting for certain normatively incorrect responses to probabilistic tasks. This article contributes to this emerging area of research by demonstrating how a particular logical fallacy, known as “an appeal to ignorance,” can be used to account for a specific set of normatively incorrect responses provided by prospective elementary and secondary mathematics teachers to a new probabilistic task. It is further suggested that a focus on the classical approach to teaching theoretical probability contributes to the use of this particular logical fallacy.