Thermal, atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies around the time of the Colima M7.8 earthquake of 21 January 2003

Abstract

Abstract. The paper examines the possible relationship of anomalous variations of different atmospheric and ionospheric parameters observed around the time of a strong earthquake (M w 7.8) which occurred in Mexico (state of Colima) on 21 January 2003. These variations are interpreted within the framework of the developed model of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere coupling. The main attention is focused on the processes in the near ground layer of the atmosphere involving the ionization of air by radon, the water molecules' attachment to the formed ions, and the corresponding changes in the latent heat. Model considerations are supported by experimental measurements showing the local diminution of air humidity one week prior to the earthquake, accompanied by the anomalous thermal infrared (TIR) signals and surface latent heat flux (SLHF) and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC) registered over the epicenter of the impending earthquake three days prior to the main earthquake event. Statistical processing of the data of the GPS receivers network, together with various other atmospheric parameters demonstrate the possibility of an early warning of an impending strong earthquake.Keywords. Atmospheric composition and structure (Ion chemistry of the atmosphere) -Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (Atmospheric electricity) -Ionosphere (Ionosphere-atmosphere interactions)

A preliminary evaluation of surface latent heat flux as an earthquake precursor

“…Although many scientists have studied the theory of pre-seismic thermal variations (Freund et al, 2007;Pulinets et al, 2006;Saraf et al, 2009), there is still no comprehensive and widely accepted geophysical explanation for thermal changes prior to seismic activity. To get rid of false predictions caused by random noise or by chance coincidence, any earthquake-predicting method (whether short-term or long-term) needs to be evaluated statistically (Kagan, 1997;Geller, 1997).…”

“…By using NOAA AVHRR satellite thermal images, Tronin used thermal remote sensing data to observe abnormal infrared radiation in a seismically active region in central Asia (Tronin, 1996). Analogous remotely sensed images were also used in Russia, China, India, Mexico and other countries (Choudhury et al, 2006;Genzano et al, 2007;Ouzounov and Freund, 2004;Ouzounov et al, 2007;Pulinets et al, 2006;Qiang et al, 1997;Tronin, 2000). Furthermore, thermal remote sensing products have also been employed in the study of the relationship between thermal variations and seismic activity, such as outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and temperature of a black body (TBB) Zhang et al, 2010).…”

“…Based on their discovery, although some data-mining technologies including wavelet transformation and spatiotemporal continuity analysis have been consequently introduced to explore the temporal and spatial variations of SLHF before and after earthquakes (Cervone et al, 2004(Cervone et al, , 2005Singh et al, 2007), there are quite a few of scientists still focusing on point and shortterm analysis. Most of the present study of relationships between seismic activity and SLHF precursors generally consists of focusing on one or more specific earthquakes, comparing their individual daily SLHF for several months before the earthquake to background values (calculated differently by different authors), declaring anomalies, displaying several images of the variation in SLHF prior to and following the earthquake, and analyzing the spatial patterns of SLHF variations in a certain area (Chen et al, 2006;Dey and Singh, 2003;Li et al, 2008;Pulinets et al, 2006;Qin et al, 2010Qin et al, , 2008.…”

Pre-seismic Thermal Anomalies from Satellite Observations: A Review

“…The SLHF increased by approximately 50 W/m 2 peaking at 115 W/m 2 over 3-23 days before earthquakes in the Middle East (Mansouri Daneshvar et al, 2014). SLHF can also be a possible precursor to coastal earthquakes because anomalous SLHF tends to be more intensive over sea surface than over land surface (Cervone et al, 2004;Cervone et al, 2006). The analysis of coastal earthquakes shows that the SLHF increased abnormally a few days before earthquakes, which is the result of the increase in surface temperature in seismically 230 active areas .…”

“…The method is simple and effective; thus, it is always used in interpreting preliminary pre-seismic anomalies. Several studies have utilized this method, such as in the aerosol anomaly (Qin et al, 2014b), SHLF anomaly (Dey andSingh, 2003), anomalies of multiple parameters Singh et al, 2010a), and thermal anomalies in AVHRR and MODIS brightness temperature (Saraf et al, 2012).…”