Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in Response to Ocean Warming

Bruge, Antoine; Álvarez, Paula; Fontán, Almudena; Cotano, Unai; Chust, Guillem

doi:10.3389/fmars.2016.00086

Cited by 57 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…In particular, the combination of controlling factors, together with systematic biases in sampling effort can lead to biases in estimated trends. The decomposition of factors using different SDMs can detect the so-called "niche tracking, " which is the shift of a species distribution to follow the displacement of their habitat, e.g., poleward shifts (Monahan and Tingley, 2012;Bruge et al, 2016). At the community level, thermal biases between the average thermal affinity of assemblages and local temperature (Stuart-Smith et al, 2015) have to be considered to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of plankton reorganization with warming.…”

Section: Adrift In An Ocean Of Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Mare Incognitum: A Glimpse into Future Plankton Diversity and Ecology Research

et al. 2017

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With global climate change altering marine ecosystems, research on plankton ecology is likely to navigate uncharted seas. Yet, a staggering wealth of new plankton observations, integrated with recent advances in marine ecosystem modeling, may shed light on marine ecosystem structure and functioning. A EuroMarine foresight workshop on the "Impact of climate change on the distribution of plankton functional and phylogenetic diversity" (PlankDiv) identified five grand challenges for future plankton diversity and macroecology research: (1) What can we learn about plankton communities from the new wealth of high-throughput "omics" data? (2) What is the link between plankton diversity and ecosystem function? (3) How can species distribution models be adapted to represent plankton biogeography? (4) How will plankton biogeography be altered due to anthropogenic climate change? and (5) Can a new unifying theory of macroecology be developed based on plankton ecology studies? In this review, we discuss potential future avenues to address these questions, and challenges that need to be tackled along the way.

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Section: Adrift In An Ocean Of Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Mare Incognitum: A Glimpse into Future Plankton Diversity and Ecology Research

et al. 2017

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“…The spatial coverage has evolved over time to adjust for the changes in spawning distribution. Since the changes in survey effort actually reflect the changes in distribution, we did not attempt to correct for them, contrary to what has previously been reported by Bruge, Alvarez, Fontán, Cotano, and Chust (), or Hughes et al. ().…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Quantifying the influence of geography and environment on the northeast Atlantic mackerel spawning distribution

Brunel

Damme

Samson

et al. 2017

Fisheries Oceanography

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Mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the northeast Atlantic have shown changes in distribution at certain times of the year, which have impacted their exploitation and management. In this study, mackerel spawning habitat over 21 recent years was characterised using generalised additive modelling, based on spatial egg density data collected every third year during targeted ichthyoplankton surveys. Mackerel spawning distribution was found to depend primarily on geographical variables (coordinates and bottom depth), with preferred spawning locations on the shelf‐edge from the north of the Iberian peninsula to the west of Scotland, with a maximum west of Ireland. Environmental drivers had a lesser influence on egg distribution. Dome shaped relationships were found with temperature and mixed layer depth, with respective optimum at 13°C and around –300 m. The model was used to reconstruct maps of the potential habitat (areas where conditions were suitable, but not necessarily used, for spawning). Little changes were observed over the years in the potential habitat, suggesting that the expansion of the egg distribution (realised habitat) was not triggered by changes in the environmental variables investigated. Little evidence was found for density‐dependent habitat selection. There was a tendency for mackerel to make more use of areas of lesser suitability in years with large stock size (1992 and 2010). This pattern, however, broke down in 2013, when stock size was the highest, as spawning occurred very south and concentrated in the most suitable habitat.

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“…Attractive areas for spawning offer suitable conditions for eggs and larval survival due to favourable oceanographic characteristics. These areas are both recurrent and highly productive (Bakun, ), so that most species visit them annually (Begg & Marteinsdottir, ; Bruge, Alvarez, Fontán, Cotano, & Chust, ; Daan, ; Heath, Rankine, & Cargill, ). Monitoring fish spawning habitats is one of the key steps towards an ecosystem‐based approach to fisheries management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Atlantic mackerel spawning habitat suitability and its future distribution in the north‐west Atlantic

Mbaye

Doniol‐Valcroze

Brosset

et al. 2019

Fisheries Oceanography

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We investigated the effect of environmental conditions on Atlantic mackerel spawning habitat in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL). Based on generalized additive models, we (i) modelled the optimal spawning habitat of mackerel in the sGSL using daily egg production (DEP) in June, (ii) predicted known and new potential present spawning habitats in the GSL and the north‐west Atlantic, and (iii) assessed how they respond to future climate change. Our findings showed that both mackerel presence–absence and given‐presence DEP were associated with sea surface temperature (10–16.5°C), salinity above 31 and depth < 120 m. Adding zooplankton showed a marked effect on the DEP given‐presence compared to the presence–absence. Predictions of spawning habitats under present (1999–2012) and future scenario (2066–2085) conditions were estimated from the presence–absence model without zooplankton, using physical conditions of the BNAM. Under present conditions, our model predicted well the main spawning habitat in the sGSL and other known secondary spawning habitats in the northern GSL (nGSL), the western and southern Newfoundland, and the north‐west Atlantic coast. Under future conditions, our study suggests that spawning habitats in the sGSL and the nGSL would expand. Our results, therefore, suggest that mackerel could benefit from a warmer GSL, minimizing the potential for a northward migration of the stock due to decreasing suitability of the sGSL as its main spawning ground, and a new but spatially limited potential habitat in Newfoundland coasts. These results can be used to inform stock management and develop adaptive management plans in the context of climate change.

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Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in Response to Ocean Warming

Cited by 57 publications

References 58 publications

Mare Incognitum: A Glimpse into Future Plankton Diversity and Ecology Research

Mare Incognitum: A Glimpse into Future Plankton Diversity and Ecology Research

Quantifying the influence of geography and environment on the northeast Atlantic mackerel spawning distribution

Modelling Atlantic mackerel spawning habitat suitability and its future distribution in the north‐west Atlantic

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