11Understanding how the metabolic rates of prokaryotes respond to temperature is fun-12 damental to our understanding of how ecosystem functioning will be altered by climate 13 change, as these micro-organisms are major contributors to global carbon efflux. Ecological 14 metabolic theory suggests that species living at higher temperatures evolve higher growth 15 rates than those in cooler niches due to thermodynamic constraints. Here, using a global 16 prokaryotic dataset, we find that maximal growth rate at thermal optimum increases with 17 temperature for mesophiles (temperature optima 45 • C), but not thermophiles ( 45 • C). 18 Furthermore, short-term (within-day) thermal responses of prokaryotic metabolic rates are 19 typically more sensitive to warming than those of eukaryotes. Given that climatic warming 20 will mostly impact ecosystems in the mesophilic temperature range, we conclude that as 21 microbial communities adapt to higher temperatures, their metabolic rates and therefore, 22 carbon efflux, will inevitably rise. Using a mathematical model, we illustrate the potential 23 global impacts of these findings. 24 Introduction 25 A general understanding of how individual organisms respond to changing environmental temperature 26 is necessary for predicting how populations, communities and ecosystems will respond to a changing 27 climate 1,2,3,4 . Because fundamental physiological rates of ectotherms are directly affected by environ-28 1 mental temperature 3,5,6 , climatic warming may be expected to lead to ectotherm communities with 29 higher metabolic rates on average 3,7 . How environmental temperature drives metabolic rates of prokary-30 otes (bacteria and archaea) is of particular importance because they are globally ubiquitous, estimated 31 to comprise up to half of the planet's global biomass 8 , and consume (respire) the majority of net primary 32 production 9,10 . Therefore, climate-driven changes in prokaryotic metabolic rates are expected to signif-33 icantly alter ecosystem productivity, nutrient cycling, and carbon flux 9,10,11,12,13,14 . Indeed, increased 34 carbon efflux has been observed in experimental measures of soil CO 2 loss to warming 15,16 , as well as 35 the responses of other microbial metabolic processes to increased temperature such as methanogenesis 17 .
36However, whether the short-term (timescales of minutes to days) thermal responses of prokaryotes can be 37 compensated by acclimation (physiological phenotypic plasticity) or longer-term (timescales of years or 38 months, years or longer) evolutionary adaptation 18,19,20 is currently unclear. The most recent study to 39 investigate this idea concluded that both short-and long-term responses of ecosystem-level heterotrophic 40 respiration were similar 21 . However, this study quantified short-term responses by aggregating day-level 41 carbon fluxes across sites, and did not have data on the direct respiratory contributions of prokaryotyes 42 per se.
43The short term, or "instantaneous" response of metab...