Thermal stress jeopardizes carbonate production of coral reefs across the western and central Pacific Ocean

Abstract

Coral reefs protect islands, coastal areas, and their inhabitants from storm waves and provide essential goods and services to millions of people worldwide. Yet contemporary rates of ocean warming and local disturbances are jeopardizing the reef-building capacity of coral reefs to keep up with rapid rates of sea-level rise. This study compared the reef-building capacity of shallow-water habitats at 142 sites across a potential thermal-stress gradient in the tropical Pacific Ocean. We sought to determine the extent to which habitat differences and environmental variables potentially affect rates of net carbonate production. In general, outer-exposed reefs and lagoonal-patch reefs had higher rates of net carbonate production than nearshore reefs. The study found that thermal anomalies, particularly the intensity of thermal-stress events, play a significant role in reducing net carbonate production—evident as a diminishing trend of net carbonate production from the western to the central tropical Pacific Ocean. The results also showed a latent spatial effect along the same gradient, not explained by thermal stress, suggesting that reefs in the western tropical Pacific Ocean are potentially enhanced by the proximity of reefs in the Coral Triangle—an effect that diminishes with increasing distance and isolation.

Upwelling, climate change, and the shifting geography of coral reef development

“… 12 ) and inshore reefs of Pohnpei and Kosrae in the central Pacific (average = 5.9 mm year −1 ; Ref. 14 ), but they fall below estimates for Palau and Yap in the western Pacific (average = 7.9 mm year −1 ; Ref. 15 ).…”

“… 12 ) and the islands of Pohnpei, Kosrae and Majuro in the central Pacific (6 mm year −1 ; Ref. 14 ). Accretion rates in the GoC currently resemble those of the Seychelles (post-bleaching, in 2017) and those of degraded Caribbean reefs (− 0.4 to 1.3 mm year −1 ; Ref.…”

“…The GoC is currently warming at a faster rate than the GoP, where seasonal upwelling buffers thermal stress, and recurring thermal-stress events are predicted to become more intense and more frequent 19,36 . Although most coral species in the eastern Pacific have demonstrated resilience to recent thermal stress 70,83 , rising temperatures and recurring heat waves will likely continue to compromise coral calcification rates, reduce coral cover, and jeopardize the ability of reefs of the ETP to keep up with future sea-level rise 14,84 . This phenomenon has already been reported in the Red Sea, where increasing temperatures that do not exceed the bleaching threshold of corals are reducing rates of calcification and growth [84][85][86] .…”

“…Most reefs in the Caribbean region are currently in a net-erosional or net-neutral state, which is a product of decreasing coral cover from coral bleaching and disease outbreaks 11 , 12 . Similarly, some reefs in the central Pacific are threatened by increasing thermal stress and predator outbreaks, and they are likewise experiencing low carbonate-production rates 13 , 14 . On the other hand, reefs in the western Pacific have experienced fewer thermal-stress events and disease outbreaks than the central Pacific and the Caribbean; these reefs generally maintain high rates of carbonate production 14 , 15 .…”

The SPDE approach for Gaussian and non-Gaussian fields: 10 years and still running

“…As an initial illustration of the method's practical relevance, we here present an incomplete list of recent applications. In the time-period of May-Sep 2021, we find applications of the SPDE-approach to Gaussian fields in astronomy (Levis et al, 2021), health (Mannseth et al, 2021;Scott, 2021;Moses et al, 2021;Bertozzi-Villa et al, 2021;Moraga et al, 2021;Asri and Benamirouche, 2021), engineering (Zhang et al, 2021), theory (Ghattas and Willcox, 2021;Sanz-Alonso and Yang, 2021a;Lang and Pereira, 2021;Bolin and Wallin, 2021), environmetrics Beloconi et al, 2021;Vandeskog et al, 2021a;Wang and Zuo, 2021;Wright et al, 2021;Gómez-Catasús et al, 2021;Valente and Laurini, 2021b;Bleuel et al, 2021;Florêncio et al, 2021;Valente and Laurini, 2021a;Hough et al, 2021), econometrics (Morales and Laurini, 2021;Maynou et al, 2021), agronomy (Borges da Silva et al, 2021), ecology (Martino et al, 2021;Sicacha-Parada et al, 2021;Williamson et al;Bell et al, 2021;Humphreys et al;Xi et al, 2021;Fecchio et al), urban planning (Li, 2021), imaging (Aquino et al, 2021), modelling of forest fires (Taylor et al; Lindenmayer et al), fisheries (Babyn et al, 2021;van Woesik and Cacciapaglia, 2021;Jarvis et al, 2021;…”