“This community will grow” — little concern for future wildfires in a dry and increasingly hotter Swedish rural community

Abstract

Increased risk of wildfires is often highlighted in media coverage of climate change in the Nordic countries. How an increased risk is reflected in the concerns and adaptive measures within the most likely affected communities is nevertheless not known. This study investigates concerns and adaptation to wildfires in a rural community in south-eastern Sweden. The comparatively dry study area has a history of frequent but often low-consequence wildfires and is projected to experience Sweden’s largest increase in severe fire weather towards 2100. Through narratives, this study elucidates potential wildfire concerns in this area and motivations behind adaptation measures. The narratives are compared to a physical causal network extracted from the literature on fires and their consequences in the region. Residents foresee an increased wildfire risk but do not consider it a threat to the future well-being of the community. Forest owners and homeowners express low commitment in preventive or adaptive measures. Instead, contrasting the reality of the twentieth century, the fire service is currently considered to be responsible for both preventing and suppressing fires. This attitude is attributed to the lack of severe implications from the generally well-managed fires in the region. Actions for prevention and adaptation seem triggered by media attention or experience from real high-consequence events occurring elsewhere, rather than local wildfire occurrence or climate change projections.