Threat of establishment of non-indigenous potato blackleg and tuber soft rot pathogens in Great Britain under climate change

Abstract

Potato blackleg and soft rot caused by Pectobacterium and Dickeya species are among the most significant bacterial diseases affecting potato production globally. In this study we estimate the impact of future temperatures on establishment of non-indigenous but confirmed Pectobacterium and Dickeya species in Great Britain (GB). The calculations are based on probabilistic climate change data and a model fitted to disease severity data from a controlled environment tuber assay with the dominant potato blackleg and soft rot-causing species in GB (P. atrosepticum), and three of the main causative agents in Europe (P. carotovorum subsp. brasiliense, P. parmentieri, Dickeya solani). Our aim was to investigate if the European strains could become stronger competitors in the GB potato ecosystem as the climate warms, on the basis of their aggressiveness in tubers at different temperatures. Principally, we found that the tissue macerating capacity of all four pathogens will increase in GB under all emissions scenarios. The predominant Pectobacterium and Dickeya species in Europe are able to cause disease in tubers under field conditions currently seen in GB but are not expected to become widely established in the future, at least on the basis of their aggressiveness in tubers relative to P. atrosepticum under GB conditions. Our key take-home messages are that the GB potato industry is well positioned to continue to thrive via current best management practices and continued reinforcement of existing legislation.

Pectobacterium brasiliense: Genomics, Host Range and Disease Management

“…In Russia, in 2017 more than 20% soft rot disease was caused by Pbr and this species also has been reported as a predominant cause of blackleg of potato in the Moscow region in 2018 [ 14 ]. However, in some other countries such as the United Kingdom and Norway, so far Pbr is not considered as a problematic species in potato fields [ 16 , 17 , 18 ]. In addition to losses in potato production, Pbr causing loses of other crops: for instance, in the years 2014–2015, in five Chinese provinces (Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan, and Liaoning), Pbr caused soft rot of cucumber whereby the disease incidence was vary from 15 to 50% in different fields, causing 20 to 30% yield losses [ 6 ].…”

Distribution of Pectobacterium Species Isolated in South Korea and Comparison of Temperature Effects on Pathogenicity

“…Park et al (1999) reported isolating Pa in South Korea, but we were unable to identify this species in this study. Pa had been considered as a major agent of potato blackleg and soft rot in Europe including Great Britain ( Skelsey et al, 2018 ). However, the prevalence of Pa had decreased by the climate change during two decades except Scotland ( van der Wolf et al, 2017 ).…”

“…However, the prevalence of Pa had decreased by the climate change during two decades except Scotland ( van der Wolf et al, 2017 ). Skelsey et al (2018) reported that three species including Ppa, Pbr, and Dickeya solani were predominant in Great Britain. The climate of South Korea is known to be a mixed region with temperate regions and subtropical regions ( Kwon et al, 2007 ).…”

Genome-Wide Analyses of the Temperature-Responsive Genetic Loci of the Pectinolytic Plant Pathogenic Pectobacterium atrosepticum

“…However, since 2012, a shift from D. solani as the dominant blackleg causing the agent to P. parmentieri and P. brasiliense has been observed [ 23 , 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 ]. P. atrosepticum still remains the dominant species causing potato blackleg and soft rot in specific temperate regions, including the United Kingdom, Norway, and Canada [ 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 ]. Results from the seed potato survey between 2013 and 2015 in England, Wales, and Scotland indicate that P. atrosepticum constituted over 89% of all positive samples [ 41 ].…”