Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution

Tai, Amos P. K.; Martin, Maria Val; Heald, Colette L.

doi:10.1038/nclimate2317

Cited by 506 publications

(270 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…As a consequence, the ISI-MIP protocol has been conducted with and without accounting for CO 2 -fertilization effects (further referred to as the CO 2 -ensemble and noCO 2 -ensemble, respectively). Recent findings also underline the importance of elevated temperatures and heat extremes (Gourdji et al, 2013;Deryng et al, 2014), ozone concentrations (Tai et al, 2014) as well as the potential of increasing susceptibility to disease as a consequence of elevated CO 2 levels (Vaughan et al, 2014) for agricultural yields, which may counteract potential yield gains by CO 2 -fertilization (Porter et al, 2014). Results for the CO 2 and noCO 2 -ensembles are presented separately, showing the range of potential manifestations and the additional risks of regional yield reductions, if effects of CO 2 -fertilization turn out to be lower than estimated by the model ensemble.…”

Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 • C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 • C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 • C and 2 • C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 • C and 2 • C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 • C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 • C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 • C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 % to 17 % between 1.5 • C and 2 • C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11 %. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50 cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2 • C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5 • C scenario. In a 1.5 • C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30 % compared to a 2 • C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in globalmean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections andPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 328C.-F. Schleussner et al.: Climate impacts at 1.5 • C a...

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Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

et al. 2016

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“…In contrast, in more remote rural areas with rapid warming and less drying, ozone risks are likely to grow because of increasing hemispheric transport of pollution leading to peak ozone levels at times when plant sensitivity is high. Tai et al (2014) showed (Sitch et al, 2007).…”

Section: Ecosystemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

et al. 2015

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Abstract. Ozone holds a certain fascination in atmospheric science. It is ubiquitous in the atmosphere, central to tropospheric oxidation chemistry, yet harmful to human and ecosystem health as well as being an important greenhouse gas. It is not emitted into the atmosphere but is a byproduct of the very oxidation chemistry it largely initiates. Much effort is focused on the reduction of surface levels of ozone owing to its health and vegetation impacts, but recent efforts to achieve reductions in exposure at a country scale have proved difficult to achieve owing to increases in background ozone at the zonal hemispheric scale. There is also a growing realisation that the role of ozone as a short-lived climate pollutant could be important in integrated air quality climate change mitigation. This review examines current understanding of the processes regulating tropospheric ozone at global to local scales from both measurements and models. It takes the view that knowledge across the scales is important for dealing with air quality and climate change in a synergistic manner. The review shows that there remain a number of clear challenges for ozone such as explaining surface trends, incorporating new chemical understanding, ozone-climate coupling, and a better assessment of impacts. There is a clear and present need to treat ozone across the range of scales, a transboundary issue, but with an emphasis on the hemispheric scales. New observational opportunities are offered both by satellites and small sensors that bridge the scales.

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“…Climate change affects agriculture directly through altering the agroecological conditions and indirectly by increasing demand of agricultural production (Schmidhuber and Tubiello 2007). Climate change is a serious threat to all aspects of agriculture including production, distribution, food accessibility and food prices (Tai et al 2014;Islam and Nursey-Bray 2017). During 1980 to 2008, there was a 5.5% fall in wheat yields and a 3.8% fall in maize yields globally, compared to their yields in stable climate (Lobell et al 2011).…”

Section: Agriculture and Climate Change: A Two-way Relationshipmentioning

confidence: 99%

Traditional agriculture: a climate-smart approach for sustainable food production

Singh

2017

Energ. Ecol. Environ.

241

118

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Sustainable food production is one of the major challenges of the twenty-first century in the era of global environmental problems such as climate change, increasing population and natural resource degradation including soil degradation and biodiversity loss. Climate change is among the greatest threats to agricultural systems. Green Revolution though multiplied agricultural production several folds but at the huge environmental cost including climate change. It jeopardized the ecological integrity of agroecosystems by intensive use of fossil fuels, natural resources, agrochemicals and machinery. Moreover, it threatened the age-old traditional agricultural practices. Agriculture is one of the largest sectors that sustain livelihood to maximum number of people and contribute to climate change. Therefore, a climate-smart approach to sustainable food production is the need of hour. Traditional agriculture is getting increased attention worldwide in context of sustainable food production in changing climate. The present article advocates traditional agriculture as a climate-smart approach for the sustainable food production and also deliberates the correlation between climate change and agriculture.

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Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution

Cited by 506 publications

References 25 publications

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

Traditional agriculture: a climate-smart approach for sustainable food production

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Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution

Cited by 506 publications

References 25 publications

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

Traditional agriculture: a climate-smart approach for sustainable food production

Contact Info

Product

Resources

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Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C