Threats from Climate Change to Terrestrial Vertebrate Hotspots in Europe

Abstract

We identified hotspots of terrestrial vertebrate species diversity in Europe and adjacent islands. Moreover, we assessed the extent to which by the end of the 21st century such hotspots will be exposed to average monthly temperature and precipitation patterns which can be regarded as extreme if compared to the climate experienced during 1950-2000. In particular, we considered the entire European sub-continent plus Turkey and a total of 1149 species of terrestrial vertebrates. For each species, we developed species-specific expert-based distribution models (validated against field data) which we used to calculate species richness maps for mammals, breeding birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Considering four global circulation model outputs and three emission scenarios, we generated an index of risk of exposure to extreme climates, and we used a bivariate local Moran’s I to identify the areas with a significant association between hotspots of diversity and high risk of exposure to extreme climates. Our results outline that the Mediterranean basin represents both an important hotspot for biodiversity and especially for threatened species for all taxa. In particular, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas host particularly high species richness as measured over all groups, while the eastern Mediterranean basin is particularly rich in amphibians and reptiles; the islands (both Macaronesian and Mediterranean) host the highest richness of threatened species for all taxa occurs. Our results suggest that the main hotspots of biodiversity for terrestrial vertebrates may be extensively influenced by the climate change projected to occur over the coming decades, especially in the Mediterranean bioregion, posing serious concerns for biodiversity conservation.

Mammal endemism In Italy: A review

“…A high proportion of Mediterranean animals are unique in this biome, with a quarter of mammal species being endemic (Cuttelod et al 2008, Maiorano et al 2013.…”

Representing Hotspots of Evolutionary History in Systematic Conservation Planning for European Mammals

“…European Mammal Distributions We used data on the spatial distribution of european terrestrial mammals described in Maiorano et al (2013). The primary data were extents of occurrence (EOOs) of the species occurring in Europe and Turkey obtained from the Global Mammal Assessment (http://www.iucnredlist.org/initiatives/mammals; accessed 15 August 2013 (IUCN 2012)).…”

“…To refine EOOs and remove potential false presences, habitat requirements were used in an expert-based modelling approach. More specifically, for each species, habitat requirement was defined by experts (G. Amori, D. Russo and L. Boitani) and published literature (see Maiorano et al 2013 for the full list of references) based on three environmental variables: land cover, elevation and distance to water. For each species, data collected were used to assign a suitability score (0, unsuitable; 1, secondary habitat and 2, primary habitat) to each of the 46 GlobCover land-use/land-cover classes.…”

“…Elevation and distance to water were then combined to the habitat suitability score to refine the available EOOs and obtain current distribution with a cell size of 300 m resolution. The models were validated with help of field data (see Maiorano et al 2013 for more details). From these 288 species we used 275 for which phylogenies were available.…”

Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe

“…Therefore, a relatively small decrease of precipitation could trigger a transition from Mediterranean to arid climate type. In turn, spatial shifts of the Mediterranean climate affect the availability and distribution of suitable habitats for wild species, contributing to reductions in endemic species range sizes (Benito Garzón et al 2008;Keenan et al 2011;Maiorano et al 2013;Thuiller et al 2005).…”