Threats to kill: a follow-up study

Abstract

Background Mental health clinicians are frequently asked to assess the risks presented by patients making threats to kill, but there are almost no data to guide such an evaluation. Method This data linkage study examined serious violence following making threats to kill and the potential role of mental disorder. A total of 613 individuals convicted of threats to kill had their prior contact with public mental health services established at the time of the index offence. The group's subsequent criminal convictions were established 10 years later using the police database. Death from suicidal or homicidal violence was also established. Results Within 10 years, 44% of threateners were convicted of further violent offending, including 19 (3%) homicides. Those with histories of psychiatric contact (40%) had a higher rate (58%) of subsequent violence. The highest risks were in substance misusers, mentally disordered, young, and those without prior criminal convictions. Homicidal violence was most frequent among threateners with a schizophrenic illness. Sixteen threateners (2.6%) killed themselves, and three were murdered. Conclusions In contrast to the claims in the literature that threats are not predictive of subsequent violence, this study revealed high rates of assault and even homicide following threats to kill. The mentally disordered were over-represented among threat offenders and among those at high risk of subsequent violence. The mentally disordered threateners at highest risk of violence were young, substance abusing, but not necessarily with prior convictions. Those who threaten others were also found to be at greater risk of killing themselves or being killed.

Harm Associated With Stalking Victimization

“…The strong relationship between threats and subsequent violence is consistent with findings from an earlier clinical sample [21]. It is also consistent with related contemporary research on threats [22]. Indeed, in an attempt to quantify this risk, McEwan et al aggregated extant research findings and suggested that stalkers who make threats are more than threefold more likely to go on to be physically assaultive [23].…”

The Psychological Basis of Threatening Behaviour

“…Where it was once thought that threats were dramatic but empty rhetoric (Calhoun, 1998;Dietz, Matthews, Martell et al, 1991;Dietz, Matthews, Van Duyne et al, 1991), new data have revealed that over 40% of those criminally convicted for threatening to kill will progress to physical violence (Warren, Mullen, Thomas, Ogloff, & Burgess, 2008). Further, murder is committed far more frequently by those whose homicidal threats are reported to authorities, than by members of the general community (MacDonald, 1968;Soothill, Francis, & Liu, 2008;Warren et al, 2008). Warren and colleagues (2008) found the rate to be more than 100 times higher than would be expected by chance.…”

Aggression in Psychoses

“…Sixteen threateners (2.6%) killed themselves, and three were murdered. Thus, this study revealed high rates of assault and even homicide following threats to kill [77].…”

“…An Australian study addressed this problem [77]. A total of 613 individuals convicted of threats to kill had their prior contact with public mental health services established at the time of this offense.…”