Three‐dimensional chemical model simulations of the ozone layer: 1979–2015

Abstract

One-year simulations of stratospheric chemistry are performed in a general-circulation model (GCM). A fairly comprehensive description of stratospheric chemistry is included in a state-of-the-art GCM which has been extended to the middle mesosphere. The predicted ozone concentration is used in the model radiation scheme, thereby coupling the dynamical and chemical processes. consist of a 4 month spin-up period, followed by a 1-year integration. Past and projected values of halogen amounts and greenhouse gases (GHGs) are imposed on the model. The results for 1979-80 and 1994-95 are generally in good agreement with observations, indicating in the latter case a deep Antarctic ozone hole and some Arctic ozone loss. For the 1979 simulation only a very shallow ozone hole was simulated, in agreement with observations. In about the year 2005, the Antarctic ozone hole reaches its maximum size and globally averaged ozone reaches its minimum, depending on the month. Tropical ozone continues to decrease until about 2010. Results in the Arctic are dominated by interannual variability, but minimum ozone may not be attained until the year 2010. The results suggest that the increase in GHGs is delaying the onset of ozone recovery. Relative to 1980 conditions, the model changes in ozone result in small predicted increases in surface ultraviolet radiation in the Arctic and mid-latitude summer but large increases in the tropics and in the Antarctic summer.

Ultraviolet radiation enhances Arctic net plankton community production

“…The results presented here are significant beyond providing evidence that NCP may have been underestimated in the past through the use of procedures that excluded UV‐B radiation. Stratospheric ozone has been declining and a small but continuing ozone losses for at least the next two decades, [ Brune et al ., ; Austin et al ., ] should lead to increase UV‐B radiation over the Arctic. Climate change with the associated changes in tropospheric and stratospheric temperature and heat flows is now affecting stratospheric ozone dynamics [ Rex et al ., ].…”

Online coupled meteorology and chemistry models: history, current status, and outlook

“…Since the mid. 1980's, a larger number of online-coupled global climate-chemistry models with various degrees of coupling to chemistry have been developed to address the Antarctic/stratospheric O 3 depletion (e.g., Cariolle et al, 1986Cariolle et al, , 1990Rose and Brasseur, 1989;Granier and Brasseur, 1991;Austin et al, , 2000 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/2895/2008/ Atmos. Chem.…”

Characteristics of Boreal Winter Total Ozone Distribution in the Northern Hemisphere and Their Relationship with Stratospheric Temperature During Recent 30 Years

“…Several factors are responsible for the depletion and recovery of ozone, some studies supported that atmospheric dynamics is one of important factors. (Shindell et al, 1999;Austin et al, 2000;Weatherhead et al, 2000).…”