By combining computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and surrogate model method (SMM), the relationship between turbine performance and airfoil shape and flow characteristics at low flow rate is revealed. In this paper, the flow velocity tidal energy airfoil model is designed based on the Kriging model, and the original airfoil with a relative thickness of 12% and a relative curvature of 2.5% is obtained. The parameter optimization is carried out by setting the 4th CST equations through the surrogate model; the maximum lift-drag ratio is the optimization goal, the optimization design variable is 10, the maximum number of iterations is 100, and the maximum number of sub-optimization iterations is 200. The results show that the hydrodynamic performance of the airfoil with thinner thickness and more curvature is better, the maximum thickness part is shifted forward by 4.58%, and the lift-drag ratio is improved by 4.03%. The flow field and the efficiency are more stable, which provides an engineering reference for the optimal design of hydraulic turbine airfoils under low flow velocity. It supplements the research on the performance of turbine blades in low velocity.