Three-level algorithm to control COVID-19 spreading

Abstract

As the main ways of the coronavirus (COVID-19) spreading are air and physical contact, actions to mitigate and suppress its spreading must be developed in order to change population behavior, providing efficient control strategies. Here, these actions are described as a simple heuristic frame work to establish public policies. The possible effects of these actions are modeled as a stratified control algorithm applied to an extension of the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) compartmental model. The model dynamics is analyzed and validated with simulations considering parameters obtained from epidemiological data from Brazil and Uruguay. Model simulations allow the proposition of a three-level control strategy that, as the numerical experiment sshow, presents promising results for the development of strategies to reduce the spread of COVID-19.