Three point shooting and efficient mixed strategies: A portfolio management approach

Abstract

Abstract. Using mean/variance investment theory, we identify the efficient mixed shot type strategy for National Basketball Association (NBA) teams. The proportion of 3-point shots in this mixed strategy closely tracks risk and the change in expected points from 1979-2014. We then extend this approach to an individual team level for both offense and defense. This measures both the risk associated with implementing a mixed strategy (for and against an individual team) and the implied shot type efficiency for offense and defense. It is the latter, shot type efficiency, which predicts winning and winning point differential.

Optimal Timeout Choices in Clutch Situations in the NBA

“…Our results show that NBA teams in possession of the ball within the final 24 s of the game have a higher chance of improving their position by not taking a timeout and instead just letting the players play. This is consistent with results in the literature that players are good at optimizing (Fichman & O'Brien, 2018; Goldman & Rao, 2017) but coaches are too conservative (Cohen et al, 2018; Owens & Roach, 2018; Romer, 2006). This effect is fairly large.…”

“…Goldman and Rao (2017) use search theory to study NBA players' decision to take a shot or wait for a better opportunity under the NBA's 24-s shot clock, finding only small deviations from optimality. Fichman and O'Brien (2018) use financial economics to assess NBA players' choices about taking 3-point and 2-point shots. Considering these choices as a portfolio, they argue that NBA players manage risk well.…”

Lógica estadística de la interacción de marca en los playoffs de la NBA (2014-2019): Factores espaciales y temporales

“…desmarcarse lejos del aro puede resultar más sencillo porque la probabilidad de acierto es menor, pero la esperanza matemática del pago recibido en caso de acierto puede explicar por qué la proporción de interacciones de marca de tres puntos sigue aumentando (Caporale & Collier, 2015;Fichman & O'Brien, 2018;Smith, 2017). Por lo que respecta al tiempo, el sistema de tanteo se manifiesta a través de una consecuencia práxica que forma parte de la dinámica propia de todas las competiciones deportivas: la probabilidad de acierto disminuye a medida que se llega al momento final del encuentro.…”

Long-Term Trends in Shooting Performance in the NBA: An Analysis of Two- and Three-Point Shooting across 40 Consecutive Seasons

“…From a practical perspective, the observed change in shooting patterns entails an intentional adaptation of both coaches and athletes to better explore three-point shot and layup (i.e., shooting in proximal areas to the basket) opportunities while compromising midrange jump shots. This means that to optimize game strategy and enhance winning possibilities, the coaching staff must critically manage the right proportion of two-and three-point shots, according to the characteristics of the team's roster and the strategy to approach the upcoming game [9]. Since the level of talent across NBA teams can vary, coaching staff try to get the most out of the available players on the roster.…”