Three predictive scores compared in a retrospective multicenter study of nonunion tibial shaft fracture

Abstract

BACKGROUND Delayed union, malunion, and nonunion are serious complications in the healing of fractures. Predicting the risk of nonunion before or after surgery is challenging. AIM To compare the most prevalent predictive scores of nonunion used in clinical practice to determine the most accurate score for predicting nonunion. METHODS We collected data from patients with tibial shaft fractures undergoing surgery from January 2016 to December 2020 in three different trauma hospitals. In this retrospective multicenter study, we considered only fractures treated with intramedullary nailing. We calculated the tibia FRACTure prediction healING days (FRACTING) score, Nonunion Risk Determination score, and Leeds-Genoa Nonunion Index (LEG-NUI) score at the time of definitive fixation. RESULTS Of the 130 patients enrolled, 89 (68.4%) healed within 9 months and were classified as union. The remaining patients (n = 41, 31.5%) healed after more than 9 months or underwent other surgical procedures and were classified as nonunion. After calculation of the three scores, LEG-NUI and FRACTING were the most accurate at predicting healing. CONCLUSION LEG-NUI and FRACTING showed the best performances by accurately predicting union and nonunion.