Moving from free to 'free & fee' for any product or service represents a challenge to managers, especially when consumers have plenty of free alternatives. For one online content provider, this paper examines (1) the sources of long-run revenue loss (through attracting fewer free subscribers) and (2) how the firm's marketing actions affect its revenue gains (through attracting paid subscribers). The authors quantify revenue loss from several sources, including the direct effects of charging for part of the online content and the reduced effectiveness of search engine referrals and emails. Their analysis suggests several managerial implications. First, managers should focus their price promotions towards stimulating new monthly subscriptions, instead of the current promotional focus on stimulating new yearly contracts. In contrast, email and search engine referrals appear very effective at generating yearly subscriptions. Meanwhile, 'free to fee' conversion email blasts are a double-edged sword: they increase subscription revenue at the expense of advertising revenue. Finally, further analysis shows the move was preceded by the build-up of momentum in new free subscriptions, which appears beneficial for the move's success. The decomposition and comparison of the sources of revenue loss versus gains reveals several tradeoffs facing companies moving from free to 'free & fee'.Keywords: from free to fee, online content, price, marketing communication, searchengine referrals, time series analysis, vector-autoregressive models.
IntroductionA decade ago, Peterson, Balasubramanian, and Bronnenberg (1997) A prominent fear among content providers is the likely loss of customers to the many still free competitors. Moreover, the impact of marketing actions to stimulate paid subscriptions is uncertain given the general consensus among web surfers that "content is free" (Dyson 1995). Empirical findings on these issues are scarce, as firms feel uneasy sharing data with academic researchers for confidentiality and competitive reasons. When The NY Times moved to a paid version of its editorial pages, one reader commented, "The only thing the NYTimes will achieve is a reduced readership for its writers. No one will, nor should we, pay for online content. It's a big, free web out there."The ultimate abandonment of the payment system (on September 19, 2007) appears to vindicate these arguments, and illustrates the challenge content providers face online.In sum, despite high managerial importance, little empirical research has addressed the following questions facing companies moving from free to 'free & fee': 1) What are the long-run performance effects of such a move?In particular, what are the sources of revenue loss that may offset the revenue gains from user fees?2) What role do marketing actions play in the free-and fee-user response? In particular, which actions are especially successful in increasing free and fee subscriptions, for both short-term and long-term contracts?This research aims to shed light on these issues by fo...