Key Points:• Above a threshold stress amplitude, b value decreases with increasing tidal stress.• b value varies by ∼0.09 per kPa change in Coulomb stress.• b values can be used to map small stress variations in the Earth's crust.
AbstractEarthquake size-frequency distributions commonly follow a power law, with the b value often used to quantify the relative proportion of small and large events. Laboratory experiments have found that the b value of microfractures decreases with increasing stress. Studies have inferred that this relationship also holds for earthquakes based on observations of earthquake b values varying systematically with faulting style, depth, and for subduction zone earthquakes, plate age. However, these studies are limited by small sample sizes despite aggregating events over large regions, which precludes the ability to control for other variables that might also affect earthquake b values such as rock heterogeneity and fault roughness.Our natural experiment in a unique seafloor laboratory on Axial Seamount involves analyzing the size-frequency distribution of ∼60,000 microearthquakes which delineate a ring-fault system in a 25 km 3 block of crust that experiences periodic tidal loading of ±20 kPa. We find that above a threshold stress amplitude, b value is inversely correlated with tidal stress.The earthquake b value varies by ∼0.09 per kPa change in Coulomb stress. Our results support the potential use of b values to estimate small stress variations in the Earth's crust.
IntroductionEarthquake occurrence is primarily controlled by the stress state on fault interfaces.Because in situ stress measurements are difficult to obtain, a proxy for estimating the stress state of fault zones through their seismic cycles is valuable for understanding earthquake occurrence and forecasting earthquakes. Earthquakes follow a power-law size-frequency distribution given as log 10 (N) = a − bM, where N is the number of earthquakes greater than or equal to magnitude M, and a and b are constants [Gutenberg and Richter, 1944]. The value a describes the total number of earthquakes while the b value describes the relative frequency of small and large magnitude earthquakes. In rock fracture experiments, acoustic emissions from small cracking events follow the same power-law size distribution [Scholz, 1968]. Furthermore, their b values have been found to decrease (larger proportion of large events) with increasing differential stress [Scholz, 1968;Amitrano, 2003;Goebel et al., 2013].The same stress dependence of b value has been inferred to apply to earthquakes. The b value of earthquakes has been found to vary systematically with faulting style , depth [Spada et al., 2013], and for subduction zone earthquakes, plate age [Nishikawa and Ide, 2014]. These observations are consistent with the earthquake b value decreasing with increasing differential stress [Scholz, 2015]. However, these studies were re--2-