TIM: Modelling pathways to meet Ireland’s long-term energy system challenges with the TIMES-Ireland Model (v1.0)

Abstract

Abstract. Ireland has significantly increased its climate mitigation ambition, with a recent government commitment to reduce greenhouse-gases by an average of 7 % per year in the period to 2030 and a “net-zero” target for 2050, underpinned by a series of five-year carbon budgets. Energy systems optimisation modelling (ESOM) is a widely-used tool to inform pathways to address long-term energy challenges. This article describes a new ESOM developed to inform Ireland's energy system decarbonisation challenge. The TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM) is an optimisation model of the Irish energy system, which calculates the cost-optimal fuel and technology mix to meet future energy service demands in the transport, buildings, industry and agriculture sectors, while respecting constraints in greenhouse-gas emissions, primary energy resources and feasible deployment rates. TIM is developed to take into account Ireland's unique energy system context, including a very high potential for offshore wind energy and the challenge of integrating this on a relatively isolated grid, a very ambitious decarbonisation target in the period to 2030, the policy need to inform five-year carbon budgets to meet policy targets, and the challenge of decarbonising heat in the context of low building stock thermal efficiency and high reliance on fossil fuels. To that end, model features of note include “future proofing” with flexible temporal and spatial definitions, with a possible hourly time resolution, unit commitment and capacity expansion features in power sector, residential and passenger transport underpinned by detailed bottom-up sectoral models, cross-model harmonisation and soft-linking with demand and macro models. The paper also outlines a priority list of future model developments to better meet the challenge of deeply decarbonising energy supply and demand, taking into account equity, cost-effectiveness and technical feasibility. To support transparency and openness in decision-making, TIM is available to download under a Creative Commons licence.

On Track or Not? Why Modelling Low Carbon Policy Pathways for Passenger Transport in Ireland Matters

“…The Energy Policy and Modelling Group here in UCC develops and maintains the TIMES Ireland model. 10 These optimization models are used to determine the optimal design for an energy system. Optimization models provide sharper decision support by providing a single, or a handful of "best" fuel mixes and choices.…”

“…Through our modelling activities in the passenger transport sector, we have developed the IPTEM model 19 that a picture of passenger transport emissions and demand by trippurpose, mode type and trip distance. Passenger transport information such as this is helpful in informing demand reduction and modal shift scenarios in both the models and models we develop in the Energy Policy and Modelling 10,16 Car Stock Model, and private vehicle stock, emissions and activity information is openly available. 4 Thus far, with the CAPACITY project, we have provided information to policy makers on walking and cycling targets, electric vehicles, working from home and transport in general.…”