Time and causality in the social sciences

Abstract

This article deals with the role of time in causal models in the social sciences. The aim is to underline the importance of time-sensitive causal models, in contrast to time-free models. The relation between time and causality is important, though a complex one, as the debates in the philosophy of science show. In particular, an outstanding issue is whether one can derive causal ordering from time ordering. The article examines how time is taken into account in demography and in economics as examples of social sciences in which considerations about time may diverge. We then present structural causal modeling as a modeling strategy that, while not essentially based on temporal information, can incorporate it in a more or less explicit way. In particular, we argue that temporal information is useful to the extent that it is placed in a correct causal structure, thus further corroborating the causal mechanism or generative process explaining the phenomenon under consideration. Despite the fact that the causal ordering of variables is more relevant than the temporal order for explanatory purposes, in establishing causal ordering the researcher should nevertheless take into account the time-patterns of causes and effects, as these are often episodes rather than single events. For this reason in particular, it is time to put time at the core of our causal models.

Cracking Chicken-Egg Conundrums: Juxtaposing Contemporaneous and Lagged Reciprocal Effects Models of Academic Self-Concept and Achievement’s Directional Ordering

“…This perspective emphasizes the importance of necessary connections in causality and rejects the possibility of simultaneous causality. Following these Western philosophical perspectives and subsequent counterfactual theories of causation (e.g., Lewis, 1973;Pearl et al, 2016;Wunsch et al, 2021), this is a traditional theory of causation in psychological research and experimental interventions. However, Cartwright (2004) argues that this notion of causality is too simplistic "because causation is not a single, monolithic concept" (p. 805).…”

“…Dorman & Griffin (2015) similarly noted that overly long time lags could attenuate true relations. Like other methodologists (e.g., Wunsch et al, 2021), they suggest that the choice of time interval should be based on a clear theoretical understanding of the causal processes, considering the research question and the population being studied, conducting sensitivity analyses, and an empirical approach in which different time intervals are considered. Although laudable, this strategy is often impractical, challenging to implement, and rarely pursued.…”

“…Here, we focus on tests of temporal ordering that provide information relevant to causal ordering. However, as Wunsch et al (2021) emphasized, temporal ordering does not necessarily provide the correct causal ordering because individuals make decisions based on past experiences, present circumstances, and future expectations. Thus, it is important to distinguish between the operational and statistical models based on available data and the conceptual-theoretical models and the characteristics underlying the data-generating process.…”

The role of cohorts in the understanding of the changes in fertility in Czechia since 1990

“…Ryder considered cohort differentiation through social norms (the age at the completion of education or at first marriage), the impact of the size of the cohort on competitiveness during the life course (university entrance examination, the labor market) and the impact of contextual historical events. Wunsch et al (2021) suggest that the cohort approach is applied when time trends are examined period by period and discussed in the causal perspective by taking into account the historical contexts of the periods considered.…”