We introduce a novel approach for predicting running performance, designed to
apply across a wide range of race distances (from marathons to ultras),
elevation gains, and runner types (front-pack to back of the pack). To achieve
this, the entire running logs of 15 runners, encompassing a total of 15,686
runs, were analyzed using two approaches: (1) regression and (2) time series
regression (TSR). First, the prediction accuracy of a long short-term memory
(LSTM) network was compared using both approaches. The regression approach
demonstrated superior performance, achieving an accuracy of 89.13% in contrast,
the TSR approach reached an accuracy of 85.21%. Both methods were evaluated
using a test dataset that included the last 15 runs from each running log.
Secondly, the performance of the LSTM model was compared against two benchmark
models: Riegel formula and UltraSignup formula for a total of 60 races. The
Riegel formula achieves an accuracy of 80%, UltraSignup 87.5%, and the LSTM
model exhibits 90.4% accuracy. This work holds potential for integration into
popular running apps and wearables, offering runners data-driven insights during
their race preparations.