Most existing life-cycle release
models for engineered nanomaterials
(ENM) are static, ignoring the dynamics of stock and flows of ENMs.
Our model, nanoRelease, estimates the annual releases of ENMs from
manufacturing, use, and disposal of a product explicitly taking stock
and flow dynamics into account. Given the variabilities in key parameters
(e.g., service life of products and annual release rate during use)
nanoRelease is designed as a stochastic model. We apply nanoRelease
to three ENMs (TiO2, SiO2 and FeO
x
) used in paints and coatings through seven product
applications, including construction and building, household and furniture,
and automotive for the period from 2000 to 2020 using production volume
and market projection information. We also consider model uncertainties
using Monte Carlo simulation. Compared with 2016, the total annual
releases of ENMs in 2020 will increase by 34–40%, and the stock
will increase by 28–34%. The fraction of the end-of-life release
among total release flows will increase from 11% in 2002 to 43% in
2020. As compared to static models, our dynamic model predicts about
an order of magnitude lower values for the amount of ENM released
from this sector in the near-term while stock continues to build up
in the system.