Time‐lagged correlations associated with interannual variations of pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon precipitation in Myanmar and the Indochina Peninsula

Chhin, Rattana; Shwe, Myint Myint; Yoden, Shigeo

doi:10.1002/joc.6428

Cited by 20 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…According to the Asia-Pacific monsoon division by Wang (2002), Myanmar Coast is located in the Indian monsoon subsystem. This region experiences three different weather seasons in the year: the winter or dry and cool season from November to February, the summer or hot season from March to April, and the rainy or southwest monsoon season from May to October (Lwin 2000;Aung et al 2017;Chhin et al 2020). Climatologically, precipitation in the monsoon season accounts for 95% of total precipitation while the remaining 5% occurs in the other half year.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent trends in precipitation over the Myanmar Coast during onset and withdrawal phases of monsoon season

Yan

Yao

Yang

et al. 2021

Theor Appl Climatol

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Monsoon precipitation is the major driver of agricultural productivity in the Myanmar Coast, it is crucial to quantify and understand recent changes in precipitation during the monsoon season over this region. By using multiple precipitation datasets, we demonstrate that total precipitation during monsoon season over the Myanmar Coast has increased slightly but not significantly, but precipitation during the onset and withdrawal phases of monsoon season exhibit a significant increasing trend during 1979-2015, and the contribution of precipitation during the two phases to total monsoon precipitation has increased significantly. The increased precipitation during the onset phase over the Myanmar Coast directly results from the earlier onset of the South Asian Summer Monsoon in recent decades, which is associated with the phase transition of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in the late 1990s. And the precipitation increase during the withdrawal phase is directly due to the enhances of the ascending motion and convection around this region, which is dynamically correlated to the anomalous cyclone-like circulation around the Bay of Bengal as well as the strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow around the equatorial Indian Ocean.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent trends in precipitation over the Myanmar Coast during onset and withdrawal phases of monsoon season

Yan

Yao

Yang

et al. 2021

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…Therefore, water vapor is transported by the low-level westerly over the Indian Ocean and the southeasterly associated with the subtropical ridge over the North Pacific. The moisture transport for precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula exhibits an apparent intraseasonal variability (Chhin et al, 2019). Prior to the onset of the summer monsoon, water vapor for precipitation is mainly contributed by the enhancement of moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Change in Extreme Precipitation Over Indochina Under Climate Change From a Lagrangian Perspective of Water Vapor

et al. 2021

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The process of global warming has humidified the atmosphere and increased the occurrence of extreme-precipitation events over the Indochina Peninsula, which lies in the transition region from the South Asian monsoon to the East Asian monsoon. The annual occurrence number of days of extreme precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula exhibits a significant change in 2003, with an abnormally higher occurrence number during the period 2003–2015 than that during 1951–2002. The extreme precipitation and such decadal change are contributed by more moisture sources associated with an enhanced dipole circulation over the Indian Ocean, which could be linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The daily large-scale meteorological pattern directly associated with extreme precipitation is characterized by an enhanced dipole of the typical summer monsoon pattern, with a zonally elongated Mascarene high and a deepened monsoon trough from northern India to the South China Sea. Such an intensified dipole provides two major channels of water vapor: one along the low-level westerly jet over the Indian Ocean and the other along the gyre of monsoon trough over the South China Sea. Compared with that during the period 1951–2002, the dipole is enhanced from northern India to the Indian Ocean and weakened over the Indochina Peninsula during the period 2003–2015. Although the Lagrangian analysis shows that the trajectory of air masses is displaced southward to the Indian Ocean, the intensified low-level westerly jet increases the evaporation of water from the ocean and thus not only enhances the water channel over the Indian Ocean but also yields a parallel water channel over the Bay of Bengal. In contrast, in spite of the increased trajectory density of air masses over the South China Sea, the lingering of air mass suppresses the evaporation of water and thus provides a declined contribution to the extreme precipitation during 2003–2015.

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“…The climatological seasonal evolution of monsoon rainfall in ICP is divided into three steps: pre‐monsoon, summer monsoon (from onset to withdrawal dates), and post‐monsoon seasons (Matsumoto, 1997; Chhin et al ., 2019). Matsumoto (1997) called the early start of rainy season over the inland region of ICP from late April to early May as “pre‐monsoon rain”.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While many studies focus on the summer monsoon rainfall and its onset in ICP (Kripalani et al ., 1995; Chen and Yoon, 2000; Wu and Wang, 2000; Zhang et al ., 2002; Mao and Wu, 2007; Takahashi and Yasunari, 2008; Feng et al ., 2013; Xiang and Wang, 2013; Takahashi et al ., 2014; Nguyen‐Le et al ., 2015; Liu et al ., 2016; Luo et al ., 2016; Ge et al ., 2017; Li et al ., 2018), there are only a few studies which reported the pre‐monsoon rainfall in the region (Kiguchi and Matsumoto, 2005; Kiguchi et al ., 2016; Chhin et al ., 2019). Passage of the upper atmospheric trough that migrates eastward in the mid‐latitude westerly zone along the southern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau and the associated moisture convergence in the lower troposphere produce intermittent rainfall events in the pre‐monsoon period (Kiguchi and Matsumoto, 2005; Kiguchi et al ., 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using observational data, Chhin et al . (2019) investigated significant time‐lagged correlations with long lead times of several climate indices related to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and El Niño Modoki with precipitation anomalies in the southern part of ICP during pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon periods. They found the evolution of significant regression coefficients of seas surface temperature (SST) and zonal wind at 850 hPa (U850) upon the pre‐monsoon precipitation over the large domain in terms of time lags up to 12 months ahead.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Time‐lagged correlations of pre‐monsoon precipitation in the Indochina Peninsula confirmed in a large ensemble simulation dataset

Chhin

Siev

Yoden

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Statistically significant time‐lagged relationship of pre‐monsoon precipitation in Indochina Peninsula (ICP) with large‐scale feature over the Pacific and Indian Oceans, which was recently found in observational datasets by the authors, is investigated with a large‐ensemble (100 ensembles) simulation database called “Database for Policy Decision‐Making for Future Climate Change” (d4PDF). Two different strategies were taken to perform Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis on the large‐ensemble dataset, namely statistics of the analysis results for each ensemble member separately and analysis on the 6,000‐year data (100 times 60 years). d4PDF can reproduce well the climatological characteristics of the observed pre‐monsoon precipitation. Significant time‐lagged correlations of several climate indices related to sea surface temperature (SST) with the pre‐monsoon precipitation in ICP as obtained in the observation are confirmed in d4PDF for both strategies of EOF analyses on each ensemble member and on 6,000‐year data. The climate simulation in d4PDF can capture the lag‐to‐lag variations of the time‐lagged correlation patterns very well, though it is weaker. The time‐lagged regressions of SST and zonal wind at 850 hPa upon the first principal component (PC1) time‐series of the EOF analysis of the pre‐monsoon precipitation over ICP are investigated in low latitudes over the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The observed time‐lagged regression features are also confirmed in d4PDF dataset; the significant regression areas expand larger and significant time lags become longer than the observation, especially in the case of 6,000‐year data, due to enough number of samples. Cluster analysis on the regression maps shows that the obtained groups with larger numbers of ensemble members are closer to the observation than the other groups. The randomness of time‐lagged regression feature among the 100 ensemble members is not directly related to the randomness of the SST perturbation introduced in the lower boundary condition for the ensemble simulation of d4PDF.

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Time‐lagged correlations associated with interannual variations of pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon precipitation in Myanmar and the Indochina Peninsula

Cited by 20 publications

References 49 publications

Recent trends in precipitation over the Myanmar Coast during onset and withdrawal phases of monsoon season

Recent trends in precipitation over the Myanmar Coast during onset and withdrawal phases of monsoon season

Change in Extreme Precipitation Over Indochina Under Climate Change From a Lagrangian Perspective of Water Vapor

Time‐lagged correlations of pre‐monsoon precipitation in the Indochina Peninsula confirmed in a large ensemble simulation dataset

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