Time on Our Side: Is Scottish Independence More Likely in the Future?

Abstract

The Scottish independence movement and its leadership have claimed ‘time is on our side’, citing the increased support for independence among younger citizens as evidence a future referendum would be more likely to deliver a ‘Yes’ result. Even amid protracted crises and tumultuous leadership changes within the Scottish National Party, observers still point to robust support for independence among younger voters as evidence of future change. Assessing this claim is important because it clarifies the role of different cleavages in Scottish and British politics and it helps us understand the motivations on both sides for trying to control the timing of any future independence referendum. In this research note, we assess the claim that time sides with the pro-independence movement, using data from the Scottish Social Attitudes Surveys and the Scottish Election Study from 1999 to 2021. Overall, we find limited support for the claim that generational replacement will help the pro-independence movement. Based on data from 1999 to 2021, the most appropriate interpretation is that time will neither help nor hurt the independence movement. Therefore, we need to treat claims on this topic from political actors with caution.