Time series analysis of daily reported number of new positive cases of COVID-19 in Japan from January 2020 to February 2023

Abstract

This study investigated temporal variations of the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan using a time series analysis incorporating maximum entropy method (MEM) spectral analysis, which produces power spectral densities (PSDs). This method was applied to daily data of COVID-19 cases in Japan from January 2020 to February 2023. The analyses confirmed that the PSDs for data in both the pre- and post-Tokyo Olympics periods show exponential characteristics, which are universally observed in PSDs for time series generated from nonlinear dynamical systems, including the so-called susceptible/exposed/infectious/recovered (SEIR) model, well-established as a mathematical model of temporal variations of infectious disease outbreaks. The magnitude of the gradient of exponential PSD for the pre-Olympics period was smaller than that of the post-Olympics period, because of the relatively high complex variations of the data in the pre-Olympics period caused by a deterministic, nonlinear dynamical system and/or undeterministic noise. A 3-dimensional spectral array obtained by segment time series analysis indicates that temporal changes in the periodic structures of the COVID-19 data are already observable before the commencement of the Tokyo Olympics and immediately after the introduction of mass and workplace vaccination programs. Additionally, the possibility of applying theoretical studies for measles control programs to COVID-19 is discussed.