Time series analysis of monthly suicide rates in West of Iran, 2006–2013

Abstract

Introduction: Iran's western provinces have higher suicide rate compared to the other provinces of the country. Although suicide rates fluctuate over time, suitable statistical models can describe their underlying stochastic dynamics. Methods: This study was conducted to explore the fluctuations of the monthly suicide rates in the most populated western province of Iran using exponential smoothing state space model to compute the forecasts. For this reason, the monthly frequencies of completed suicides were converted to rates per 100,000 and a state-space approach was identified and fitted to the monthly suicide rates. Diagnostic checks were performed to determine the adequacy of the fitted model. Results: A significant seasonal variation was detected in completed suicide with a peak in August. Diagnostic checks and the time series graph of the observed monthly suicide rates against predicted values from the fitted model showed that in the study period (from March 2006 to September 2013), the observed and predicted values were in agreement. Thus, the model was used to obtain the short-term forecasts of the monthly suicide rates. Conclusions: In this study, we had no significant trend but seasonal variations in the suicide rates that were identified. However, additional data from other parts of the country with longer duration are needed to visualize the reliable trend of suicide and identify seasonality of suicide across the country.

Temporal patterns of suicide and circulatory system disease-related mortality are inversely correlated in several countries

“…However, the patterns we detected in 4 of 5 countries in this study are consistent with prior reports of seasonal patterns for circulatory system disease-related mortality [ 12 , 13 , 27 – 29 ] and for suicide in a number of countries and regions [ 10 , 11 , 24 , 25 , 30 – 42 ]. Although we cannot infer from our data whether cross-correlations exist in other countries, studies of temporal patterns of suicide or circulatory disease-related mortality in Canada, Chile, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Iran, Italy, Norway, and Sweden report apparently inverse temporal patterns for suicide [ 10 , 31 , 33 , 38 – 45 ] and for circulatory disease-related mortality [ 13 , 14 , 29 , 46 , 47 ]. Accordingly, it seems possible that the cross-correlations we identified in 4 countries also exist in other countries.…”

Gender and Spatial Disparities of Suicide Mortality Risk in Kermanshah Province, Iran: A Brief Report

“…In this study, county-level counts of suicide deaths in Kermanshah province were obtained from the dataset provided by the provincial Forensic Medicine Organization (FMO). Death certificates issued by the FMO have been accepted as a valid mortality data source for epidemiologic studies of suicide [4][5][6][7]10]. The corresponding populations of counties are obtained from the 2016 national census of population and housing [11].…”

“…A previous study conducted in Kermanshah has also reported multiple individual level factors associated with the risk of attempted or completed suicide [6]. Determining the temporal and seasonal patterns of disease helps identify different spatial patterns over time and improve our understanding of the risk factors affecting the distribution of disease and death across the population and set them in the form of geographical maps [5,7]. Meanwhile, a previous ecological study has been conducted to visualize spatial heterogeneity in suicide mortality risk across the counties of the province [8].…”