Time series analysis of Nevirapine syrup consumption in prevention of mother-tochild transmission and optimal supply chain model in Oshana region, Namibia

Abstract

Introduction. HIV/AIDS continue to be serious communicable disease whose impact on public health in Namibia is massive. It is estimated that the prevalence rate of HIV in Namibia is 17.2%, ranking the country as the fifth highest in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Some improvement in reducing the number of cases of HIV/AIDS has been made in the country, but the sporadic shortage of medicines continues to slow down government efforts to foster the emergence of an HIV-free generation of Namibians Objective of the study. Develop and demonstrate a mathematical supply-chain model, which can establish parameters to prevent stock-outs of NVP suspension. Method: The study adopted retrospective approach to acquire data from 2012-2016. Results. Gamma supply chain model was developed as the optimal model for NVP syrup and forecasted consumption for 2017-2018 was determined. Conclusion and recommendation. It is a recommendation of this study that new guidelines for implementation of optimal supply-chain models at the regional medical store, health centers and clinics be implemented for Nevirapine syrup.