Time trend of global uterine cancer burden: an age-period-cohort analysis from 1990 to 2019 and predictions in a 25-year period

Abstract

Background Uterine cancer remains a serious medical problem worldwide. This study aimed to explore the global time trends of uterine cancer burden using the age-period-cohort model and forecast incidence to 2044. Methods Data were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate age, period and birth cohort effects. We also predict uterine cancer incidence to 2044. Results Globally, there were 435,041 incident cases (95% UI: 245,710 to 272,470) and 91,640 deaths of uterine cancer (95% UI: 39,910 to 44,140) in 2019. During the past 30 years, the age-standardized incidence and death rates increased by 15.3% and decreased by 21.6%, respectively. Between 1990 and 2019, the high-sociodemographic index region had the highest overall annual percentage changes. The age effect showed the uterine cancer incidence rate first increased and then decreased with age. The period and cohort relative rate ratio showed upward trends during the study period. Incident cases of uterine cancer may increase to more than six hundred thousand in 2044. Conclusion Uterine cancer causes a high disease burden in high-income regions and the global incidence may continue to increase in the future. Improving awareness of risk factors and reducing the proportion of the obese population are necessary to reduce future burden.

Assessment of secular trends of three major gynecologic cancers burden and attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019: an age period cohort analysis

“…Even worse, although the number of death cases from UC was relatively low in the low and middle- low SDI areas, the increase in the number of deaths exceeded 100% in both areas. Studies suggests that the ASIR of UC will increase over the next 25 years, also indicating that if corresponding prevention strategies are not taken, the death risk among UC patients will continue to rise [ 46 ].…”

Analyzing Cancer Incidence Trends in Oman From 1996 to 2019: A Comprehensive Study of the National Cancer Annual Reports

“…This result is consistent with findings from global and regional studies showing upward trend in the uterine cancer incidence. 17 - 19 Yang et al 17 reported that uterine cancer incidence increased globally by 15% from 1990 to 2019, with the North Africa and Middle East region having the highest percent change reaching 74%. However, the magnitude of the upward trend in our study was much higher, exceeding the nine-fold increase in the ASR between 1996 and 2019.…”

“… 18 Age, high body mass index, and estrogen-progesterone imbalance increase the risk of endometrial cancer, and factors contributing to increasing incidence trends may include socioeconomic development, high-fat high-energy diet, and health care technology. 17 , 20 , 21 However, parity, which is associated with lower estrogen exposure, is considered a protective factor. 21 , 22 A review of 171 meta-analyses and 53 risk factors for endometrial cancer identified body mass index and parity to have the strongest association with endometrial cancer globally.…”

Analysis of East Asia subgroup in Study 309/KEYNOTE-775: lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab versus treatment of physician’s choice chemotherapy in patients with previously treated advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer

“…In East Asia, the incidence of EC has increased across all age groups [ 2 3 4 ], and 5-year survival rates in patients who are diagnosed with advanced disease or who experience disease recurrence have remained low (26%–32%) with standard-of-care treatments [ 2 5 6 ]. In the Global Burden of Disease Study, the age-standardized incidence of EC increased between 1990 and 2019 at a higher rate among patients from East Asia (26.8%) compared with the global study population (15.3%) [ 7 ]. Although the age-standardized death rate due to EC decreased over the same time period in Republic of Korea (2.68% to 0.77%), it remained relatively stable in Japan (1.78% to 1.7%) and increased in Taiwan (0.96% to 1.64%) [ 7 ].…”

“…In the Global Burden of Disease Study, the age-standardized incidence of EC increased between 1990 and 2019 at a higher rate among patients from East Asia (26.8%) compared with the global study population (15.3%) [ 7 ]. Although the age-standardized death rate due to EC decreased over the same time period in Republic of Korea (2.68% to 0.77%), it remained relatively stable in Japan (1.78% to 1.7%) and increased in Taiwan (0.96% to 1.64%) [ 7 ]. Therefore, the burden of EC has remained substantial in the East Asian population.…”