Time‐varying failure rate simulation model of transmission lines and its application in power system risk assessment considering seasonal alternating meteorological disasters

Wang, Jian; Xiong, Xiaofu; Zhou, Ning; Li, Zhe; Weng, Shijie

doi:10.1049/iet-gtd.2015.0745

Cited by 43 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…First of all, we extended the IEEE39 model with 10 additional lines which allowed us to improve the systems connectivity and hence reliability. Afterwards, we prepared the values of failure probability for each kilometer of the line basing on the mean time to repair and transmission lines failure frequency [18,19] published by PSE-the Polish TSO [20].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk-Based Active Power Redispatch Optimization

et al. 2020

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Risk-based redispatch optimization is proposed as a methodology to support the Transmission System Operator (TSO) with preventive remedial actions obtained by extending the security-constrained unit commitment/economic dispatch with constraints resulting from the risk assessed for the power system. Although being heuristic, the methodology is based on comprehensive dynamic security assessment as time-domain simulations are used, allowing to express the degree of all types of instabilities, e.g., caused by contingencies, in monetary terms. Therefore, the risk is assessed as the expected value of the cost incurred by the TSO. Such an approach forms a new pathway to including risk in planning procedures already used by TSOs. Results obtained for the IEEE39 dynamic power system, with costs assigned to load shedding and generator tripping due to single transmission lines short-circuits, are shown as a reference case.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk-Based Active Power Redispatch Optimization

et al. 2020

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk-based Active Power Redispatch Optimization

Wawrzyniak¹,

Padrón²,

Jaworski³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Risk-based redispatch optimization is proposed as a methodology to support the Transmission System Operator (TSO) with preventive remedial actions obtained by extending the security constrained unit commitment/economic dispatch with constraints resulting from the risk assessed for the power system. Although being heuristic, the methodology is based on comprehensive dynamic security assessment as time-domain simulations are used, allowing to express the degree of all types of instabilities, e.g., caused by contingencies, in monetary terms. Therefore, the risk is assessed as the expected value of the cost incurred by the TSO. Such approach forms a new pathway to including risk in planning procedures already used by TSOs. Results obtained for the IEEE39 dynamic power system, with costs assigned to load shedding and generator tripping due to single transmission lines short-circuits, are shown as a reference case.

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“…These types of methods are suitable for small local urban power grid, but are inefficient for multiple failure risk analysis of a large power grid. The second type of methods are based on random sampling. Zhao proposed a fast sampling method based on Monte Carlo sampling for grid risk assessment and system implementation; Wang reported a study of risk assessment using Monte Carlo simulation for the safe operation of a large power grid; Chen conducted intensive studies of risk assessment of power grid operation modes based on Monte Carlo simulation; Zhu carried out a reliability evaluation of Sichuan Power Network using Monte Carlo simulation technique; Shi et al proposed a power grid risk analysis method based on assuming the fault obeys normal distribution; He et al evaluated the risk in urban network planning based on fuzzy theory, and the probability of the risk factors are assessed by questionnaire; Cheng et al put forward a power system reliability evaluation method based on the assumption that component's fault is normal distribution; Li et al raised a transmission line overload risk assessment method, and the transmission line overload fault is assumed to be normal distribution; Deng et al proposed a risk assessment of power system in wind power uncertain environment, and the wind power output is assumed to be normal distribution; Wang et al and He et al assumed that probability distribution of transmission lines or transformer faults is approximately Weibull distribution; and it is very common that the transmission lines tripping probability or failure rate of a given unit in power system is assumed to be a fixed value in several studies . These methods have good computational efficiency for risk assessment of a large power grid.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research and application of efficient risk analysis method for electric power grid multiple faults under widespread wildfire disasters

Guo

Zhou

et al. 2019

Int Trans Electr Energ Syst

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Summary In recent years, wildfire disasters have occurred frequently in China, with currently more than 70 000 wildfires annually. During the high wildfire disaster period, multiple transmission lines readily trip simultaneously. This poses a serious threat to the safe operation of a large power grid. The probability that multiple transmission lines will trip is far greater than for only a single transmission line. The degree of risk to the power grid needs to be analyzed under multiple tripping combinations of transmission lines caused by wildfire disasters. However, when a large number of wildfire points is involved, the number of such transmission lines tripping combinations become huge, and rapid analysis of the risk to the power grid in these conditions is very difficult. In the present study, the probability distribution characteristics of power grid fault under wildfire disaster were analyzed using historical data on transmission line wildfires and wildfire tripping. A Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling method is proposed to match the probability distribution characteristics of transmission lines tripping under wildfire disasters. The precision of multi‐fault combination sampling is improved effectively. A quantitative power grid risk analysis method is put forward to estimate the sort of transmission lines risk under wildfire disasters efficiently. This gives scientifically based guidelines for reducing the risk to a power grid from widespread wildfire.

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Time‐varying failure rate simulation model of transmission lines and its application in power system risk assessment considering seasonal alternating meteorological disasters

Cited by 43 publications

References 10 publications

Risk-Based Active Power Redispatch Optimization

Risk-Based Active Power Redispatch Optimization

Risk-based Active Power Redispatch Optimization

Research and application of efficient risk analysis method for electric power grid multiple faults under widespread wildfire disasters

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