Timing of Community Mitigation and Changes in Reported COVID-19 and Community Mobility ― Four U.S. Metropolitan Areas, February 26–April 1, 2020

Lasry, Arielle; Kidder, Daniel P.; Hast, Marisa; Poovey, Jason; Sunshine, Gregory; Winglee, Kathryn; Zviedrite, Nicole; Ahmed, Faruque; Ethier, Kathleen A.; Clodfelter, Catherine; Howard-Williams, Mara; Hulkower, Rachel; Jeong, Gi Uk; Landsman, Lisa; McCord, Russell; Moreland, Amanda; Shelburne, Julia; Billioux, Alexander; Hand, Julie; Kanter, Joseph; Smith, Andrew; Sokol, Theresa; Duchin, Jeffrey S.; Fagalde, Meaghan; Pogosjans, Sargis; Brown, Robert D.; Huang, Sandra; Moss, Nicholas J.; Pan, Erica; Shemsu, Munira; Yette, Emily; Bock, Carly; Curtis‐Robles, Rachel; Lockett, C. Patrice; Morrow, Scott; Sallenave, Catherine; Santora, Lisa; Willis, Matthew

doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm6915e2

Cited by 187 publications

(161 citation statements)

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“…In agreement with Lasry et al, we demonstrate that stay-athome orders significantly increase the amount of time people spend at home. 3 Further, our multivariable linear regression analysis, which demonstrates that percent time spent at home was the most significant modulator of Rt, indicates that the primary driving factor in reducing viral transmission was limiting mobility. In conjunction, these results provide evidence that NPIs can be useful in controlling COVID-19 outbreak by effectively reducing social mobility.…”

Section: Context and Contributionmentioning

confidence: 81%

“…Mandated policies including limitations on mass gatherings, business closures, and stay-at-home orders have aimed to encourage social distancing and flatten the curve. [2][3][4] As of April 30, 2020, over 3,249,000 COVID-19 cases have been confirmed worldwide, with more than 1,067,000 cases and 62,000 resulting deaths in the United States. 5 In an effort to contain the virus, broad shutdowns have resulted in severe economic impacts including 26 million Americans filing for unemployment within a 5 week period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…23 Further, the United States CDC has demonstrated that social distancing policies have reduced community mobility in Seattle, San Francisco, New York City, and New Orleans. 3 However, literature exploring the actual effects of various social distancing policies on disease transmission across states in the U.S. remains sparse. Furthermore, efforts to quantify the effects on transmission have not accounted for different stages of disease burden, discounting that the efficacy of policy changes will likely differ if they are instituted in the context of 20 cases or 10,000.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of policy interventions and social distancing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States

Dreher

Spiera

McAuley

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: Policymakers have employed various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)such as stay-at-home orders and school closures to limit the spread of Coronavirus disease . However, these measures are not without cost, and careful analysis is critical to quantify their impact on disease spread and guide future initiatives. This study aims to measure the impact of NPIs on the effective reproductive number (Rt) and other COVID-19 outcomes in U.S. states. Methods:In order to standardize the stage of disease spread in each state, this study analyzes the weeks immediately after each state reached 500 cases. The primary outcomes were average Rt in the week following 500 cases and doubling time from 500 to 1000 cases. Linear and logistic regressions were performed in R to assess the impact of various NPIs while controlling for population density, GDP, and certain health metrics. This analysis was repeated for deaths with doubling time from 50 to 100 deaths and included several healthcare infrastructure control variables. Results:States that had a stay-at-home order in place at the time of their 500th case are associated with lower average Rt the following week compared to states without a stay-at-home order (p < 0.001) and are significantly less likely to have an Rt>1 (OR 0.07, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.37, p = 0.004). These states also experienced a significantly longer doubling time from 500 to 1000 cases (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.72, p = 0.004). States in the highest quartile of average time spent at home were also slower to reach 1000 cases than those in the lowest quartile (HR 0.18, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.53, p = 0.002).Discussion: Few studies have analyzed the effect of statewide stay-at-home orders, school closures, and other social distancing measures in the U.S., which has faced the largest COVID-19 case burden. States with stay-at-home orders have a 93% decrease in the odds of having a positive Rt at a standardized point in disease burden. States that plan to scale back such measures should carefully monitor transmission metrics.

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Section: Context and Contributionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of policy interventions and social distancing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States

Dreher

Spiera

McAuley

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…We begin our analysis by examining whether SIPOs affect social mobility, drawing daily state-level data on social distancing for the period March 8, 2020 to April 17, 2020 from SafeGraph, Inc. For our analysis, we leverage this firm's anonymized population movement dataset representing 45 million smartphone devices. These data have recently been used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to gather information on the degree to which social distancing has been practiced by individuals in the United States following the outbreak (Lasry et al 2020). From these data we collect a state-by-day measure of the percent of the state population who remain at home for the entire day.…”

Section: Social Mobility Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

When Do Shelter-in-Place Orders Fight COVID-19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States and Adoption Time

et al. 2020

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The SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes the disease COVID-19, has spread rapidly within the United States. The total number of confirmed cases in the United States on March 12, 2020 was 1,629 which grew to 18,747 confirmed cases within seven days (Center for Disease Control and Prevention 2020a). The primary strategy suggested by governments worldwide to reduce the spread of COVID-19 is social distancing (Australian Government Department of Health. 2020;

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“…Most countries have implemented measures that enforce physical distancing. However, Sweden has controversially resisted a "lockdown" approach (Ward, 2020), and the federal response and variations in regional responses in the United States are widely criticized (Lasry et al, 2020;Villarreal, 2020). Conversely, some leaders, both internationally and within Canada, are celebrated for responding more effectively.…”

Section: The Global Natural Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdisciplinary and Collaborative Approaches Needed to Determine Impact of COVID-19 on Older Adults and Aging: CAG/ACG andCJA/RCVJoint Statement

et al. 2020

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The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent state of public emergency have significantly affected older adults in Canada and worldwide. It is imperative that the gerontological response be efficient and effective. In this statement, the board members of the Canadian Association on Gerontology/L’Association canadienne de gérontologie (CAG/ACG) and the Canadian Journal on Aging/La revue canadienne du vieillissement (CJA/RCV) acknowledge the contributions of CAG/ACG members and CJA/RCV readers. We also profile the complex ways that COVID-19 is affecting older adults, from individual to population levels, and advocate for the adoption of multidisciplinary collaborative teams to bring together different perspectives, areas of expertise, and methods of evaluation in the COVID-19 response.

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Timing of Community Mitigation and Changes in Reported COVID-19 and Community Mobility ― Four U.S. Metropolitan Areas, February 26–April 1, 2020

Cited by 187 publications

References 1 publication

Impact of policy interventions and social distancing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States

Impact of policy interventions and social distancing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States

When Do Shelter-in-Place Orders Fight COVID-19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States and Adoption Time

Interdisciplinary and Collaborative Approaches Needed to Determine Impact of COVID-19 on Older Adults and Aging: CAG/ACG andCJA/RCVJoint Statement

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