Tipping mechanisms in a conceptual model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Chapman, Ruth; Sinet, Sacha; Ritchie, Paul D. L.

doi:10.1002/wea.7609

Weather

2024

DOI: 10.1002/wea.7609

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Tipping mechanisms in a conceptual model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Ruth Chapman,

Sacha Sinet,

Paul D. L. Ritchie

Abstract: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) forms an essential component of the global ocean circulation. Paleoclimate records indicate the AMOC’s capability to tip between different states that resulted in large global climate impacts. Using an AMOC box model, re‐calibrated against a global circulation model, HadGEM3, we present a new bifurcation analysis and showcase mechanisms that may lead the AMOC to tip from its current ‘on’ state to a collapsed ‘off’ state under climate change. We find that b… Show more

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2024

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Cited by 2 publications

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Investigating ocean circulation dynamics through data assimilation: A mathematical study using the Stommel box model with rapid oscillatory forcings

Smith,

Shiney-Ajay,

Fleurantin

et al. 2024

Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science

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We investigate ocean circulation changes through the lens of data assimilation using a reduced-order model. Our primary interest lies in the Stommel box model, which reveals itself to be one of the most practicable models that has the ability of reproducing the meridional overturning circulation. The Stommel box model has at most two regimes: TH (temperature driven circulation with sinking near the north pole) and SA (salinity driven with sinking near the equator). Currently, the meridional overturning is in the TH regime. Using box-averaged Met Office EN4 ocean temperature and salinity data, our goal is to provide a probability that a future regime change occurs and establish how this probability depends on the uncertainties in initial conditions, parameters, and forcings. We will achieve this using data assimilation tools and DAPPER within the Stommel box model with fast oscillatory regimes.

show abstract

Investigating ocean circulation dynamics through data assimilation: A mathematical study using the Stommel box model with rapid oscillatory forcings

Smith,

Shiney-Ajay,

Fleurantin

et al. 2024

Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Quantifying risk of a noise-induced AMOC collapse from northern and tropical Atlantic Ocean variability

Chapman,

Ashwin,

Baker

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Commun.

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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exerts a major influence on global climate. There is much debate about whether the current strong AMOC may collapse as a result of anthropogenic forcing and/or internal variability. Increasing the noise in simple salt-advection models can change the apparent AMOC tipping threshold. However, it's not clear if `present-day' variability is strong enough to induce a collapse.Here, we investigate how internal variability affects the likelihood of AMOC collapse. We examine internal variability of basin-scale salinities and temperatures in four CMIP6 pre-industrial simulations. We fit this to an empirical, process-based AMOC box model, andfind that noise-induced AMOC collapse (defined as a decade in which the mean AMOC strength falls below $5 \ \rm{Sv}$) is unlikely, however, if the AMOC is pushed closer to a bifurcation point due to external climate forcing, noise-induced tipping becomes more likely.Surprisingly, we find a case where forcing temporarily overshoots a stability threshold but noise decreases the probability of collapse. Accurately modelling internal decadal variability is essential for understanding the increased uncertainty in AMOC projections.

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Tipping mechanisms in a conceptual model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Cited by 2 publications

References 40 publications

Investigating ocean circulation dynamics through data assimilation: A mathematical study using the Stommel box model with rapid oscillatory forcings

Investigating ocean circulation dynamics through data assimilation: A mathematical study using the Stommel box model with rapid oscillatory forcings

Quantifying risk of a noise-induced AMOC collapse from northern and tropical Atlantic Ocean variability

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