To Fuel or Not to Fuel? Is that the Question?

Ayra, Eduardo S.; Insua, David Rı́os; Cano, Javier

doi:10.1080/01621459.2013.879060

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…In fact, it is common for airlines to load discretionary fuel for contingencies guided by the amount of extra fuel, compared to the planned mission fuel, that was needed in the past year (Karisch et al 2012). Airlines load this discretionary fuel to reduce the probability that a flight will need to divert to an alternate airport, which costs approximately $25 000 in direct operating costs (Ayra et al 2014), as a result of low fuel. Airlines must make the complex trade-off between the probability of diverting and the absolute cost of carrying discretionary fuel.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landing on empty: estimating the benefits from reducing fuel uplift in US Civil Aviation

Ryerson

Hansen

et al. 2015

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Airlines and Air Navigation Service Providers are united in their goal to reduce fuel consumption. While changes to flight operations and technology investments are the focus of a number of studies, our study is among the first to investigate an untapped source of aviation fuel consumption: excess contingency fuel loading. Given the downside risk of fuel exhaustion of diverting to an alternate airport, airline dispatchers may load excess fuel onto an aircraft. Such conservatism comes at a cost of consuming excess fuel, as fuel consumed is a function of, among other factors, aircraft weight. The aim of this paper is to quantify, on a per-flight basis, the fuel burned due to carrying fuel beyond what is needed for foreseeable contingencies, and thereby motivate research, federal guidance, and investments that allow airline dispatchers to reduce fuel uplift while maintaining near zero risks of fuel exhaustion. We merge large publicly available aviation and weather databases with a detailed dataset from a major US airline. Upon estimating factors that capture the quantity fuel consumed due to carrying a pound of weight for a range of aircraft types, we calculate the cost and greenhouse gas emissions from carrying unused fuel on arrival and additional contingency fuel above a conservative buffer for foreseeable contingencies. We establish that the major US carrier does indeed load fuel conservatively. We find that 4.48% of the fuel consumed by an average flight is due to carrying unused fuel and 1.04% of the fuel consumed by an average flight is due to carrying additional contingency fuel above a reasonable buffer. We find that simple changes in flight dispatching that maintain a statistically minimal risk of fuel exhaustion could result in yearly savings of 338 million lbs of CO 2 , the equivalent to the fuel consumed from 4760 flights on midsized commercial aircraft. Moreover, policy changes regarding maximum fuel loads or investments that reduce uncertainty or increase the ability to plan flights under uncertainty could yield far greater benefits.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landing on empty: estimating the benefits from reducing fuel uplift in US Civil Aviation

Ryerson

Hansen

et al. 2015

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…In Nigeria, air transportation used to be perceived as an elite mode of transportation due to the high cost of air travel as compared with road transportation. As the aviation industry grew with more operators and investments into the sector, the cost of air transportation reduced due to the competition and increased operational efficiency (Ayra et al, 2014). Currently, 22% of global carbon dioxide emission comes from transportation (Hombach et al, 2018) while about 10.6% of global greenhouse gas generation is ascribed to air transportation (Gössling et al, 2017) and this portend a growing threat to the environment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Market fluctuations in the price of jet fuel is one of the major factors that determine the cost of flight ticket, as commercial airlines will adjust their ticket price based on their business cost and operational realities. Expenses on fuel constitute about 30% of an airlines direct operating cost (Ayra et al, 2014), and also jet fuel accounts for about 20% of an aircraft's weight , this makes jet fuel a vital operational component that must be adequately managed to maximise an airlines productivity and profitability. This Journal is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Significance of Stock Management to Jet Fuel Supply Using Partial Least Squares

Adekitan

Salau²

2020

IJEEP

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Operational and commercial efficiency at a jet fuel depot are vital indices for a jet fuel marketer toward ensuring maximum business productivity. In Nigeria, jet A-1 aviation fuel scarcity is a yearly challenge that periodically triggers jet fuel price increase, air fare price hike and flight cancellation. The causes of the scarcity have been ascribed to the challenges facing jet fuel supply process. In this study, the significance of each of the seven jet fuel depots of a fuel marketer to the overall business performance is analysed using structural equation modelling to evaluate the historical sales and stock data. Historical stock data contain hidden patterns and knowledge that can be acquired and applied in operational decision making processes. The effect of each depot on business performance is classified using the significance and path coefficient result obtained from the partial least squares model implemented on historical stock data. The analysis reveals the significance of adequate stock level via supply chain management, and this creates an opportunity for directing management policies and decisions at less significant depots based on the data-mined knowledge acquired. An overall model R 2 value of 0.902 was achieved. This study emphasises the relevance of quality data even in the aviation fuel industry.

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“…Airlines load discretionary fuel for contingencies, beyond the minimum reserve fuel requirement of the Law, guided by the minimum amount of extra fuel required compared to the actual amounts of fuel that were required during the previous years (Karisch et al, 2012). Ayra et al (2014), using the concept of discretionary fuel beyond the minimum required reserve fuel, argue that the need for airlines to load the extra discretionary fuel cannot be over emphasized as it reduces the probability that a flight would need to divert to an alternate airport since diversions come at extra costs of approximately $25000 in direct operating costs. They argue that airlines must make a trade-off between the probability of diverting and the absolute cost of carrying discretionary fuel with the safety consideration being the most important consideration for the need to carry the extra discretionary fuel.…”

Section: -399xmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…FAA (2017) further adds that, when air traffic planners receive accurate weather information, they can effectively plan the traffic flow within their airspace and also make adequate plans on restricting flow when needed. Ayra et al (2014) sought to add to the literature by showing the need for integrating the different airline divisions to analyze and assess operational costs such as fuelling, delays, and airport diversions in a global manner. Taking into account all DOCs in their model, the study was able to prove successfully that, when the fuel loaded within an aircraft is optimised during the flight, diversion costs -in the form Air Traffic Flow Management -which are borne by alternative airports within a network is reduced considerably.…”

Section: Weather Services and Airport Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Benefits of Aviation Weather Services: A Review of International Literature

Anaman¹,

Quaye²,

Owusu-Brown³

2017

RWE

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This paper presents a summary of the international literature published on the benefits of aviation weather services. Aviation operations are highly sensitive to weather conditions. Information on weather conditions helps meteorologists, pilots, navigators, airline companies and businesses to ensure safe flights and save money by reducing some of the stringent requirements related to carrying extra fuel loads. The development of constantly updated flight plans with respect to available weather information regarding changing wind and general weather conditions can enable aircraft to use fuel more efficiently and navigate their planes in safer environments that avoid turbulence and make air flights comfortable to the travelling public. The summary literature presented in this paper illustrates the importance of the work of meteorologists in the production of relevant information and data that are accessible to pilots and navigators. The pooling of meteorological information, data and other resources by member countries of the World Meteorological Organisation represents a classic case of international cooperation that has ensured relatively safe and comfortable air flights across the world since the era of international air travel in the 20 th Century speeding up the process of the more historically-recent globalisation.

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To Fuel or Not to Fuel? Is that the Question?

Cited by 14 publications

References 10 publications

Landing on empty: estimating the benefits from reducing fuel uplift in US Civil Aviation

Landing on empty: estimating the benefits from reducing fuel uplift in US Civil Aviation

The Significance of Stock Management to Jet Fuel Supply Using Partial Least Squares

Benefits of Aviation Weather Services: A Review of International Literature

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