To link or not to link: a test of the case linkage principles using serial car theft data

Tonkin, Matthew; Grant, Tim; Bond, John W.

doi:10.1002/jip.74

Cited by 72 publications

(149 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…With this caution in mind, it can be said that the findings lend further support to the notion that offenders tend to commit their offenses in relatively restricted geographical areas and temporal periods that do not overlap significantly with those of other offenders (e.g. Bennell & Canter, 2002;Tonkin et al, 2008;Woodhams & Toye, 2007). But, they extend this conclusion beyond specific crime types, which suggests that the offenders in this sample offend in broadly the same geographical regions, regardless of crime type.…”

Section: Running Head: Linking Different Types Of Crime 23supporting

confidence: 72%

Linking Different Types of Crime Using Geographical and Temporal Proximity

Tonkin

Woodhams

Bull

et al. 2011

Criminal Justice and Behavior

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In the absence of forensic evidence (such as DNA or fingerprints), offender behavior can be used to identify crimes that have been committed by the same person (referred to as behavioral case linkage). The current study presents the first empirical test of whether it is possible to link different types of crime using simple aspects of offender behavior. The discrimination accuracy of the kilometer-distance between offense locations (the intercrime distance) and the number of days between offenses (temporal proximity) was examined across a range of crimes, including violent, sexual and property-related offenses. Both the intercrime distance and temporal proximity were able to achieve statistically significant levels of discrimination accuracy that were comparable across and within crime types and categories. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed and recommendations made for future research. Keywords ProximityOne of the most compelling and well-supported findings in criminology is that the majority of crime is committed by a minority of offenders (e.g. Kershaw, Nicholas, & Walker, 2008;Laub, 2004;Piquero, Farrington, & Blumstein, 2007). In the United States (US), for example, estimates suggest that approximately 5% of offenders are responsible for 30% of felony convictions (Office of the Legislative Auditor, 2001). Findings such as these suggest that an effective way for the police to tackle and reduce crime is to target serial and repeat offenders who are responsible for a disproportionate amount of crime.Targeting serial offenders specifically, however, requires the police to identify serial offenses (referred to hereafter as linked crime series), which are essentially two or more crimes committed by the same offender or the same group of offenders (Woodhams, Hollin, & Bull, 2007). The most reliable way of identifying linked crime series is through the recovery of forensic evidence, such as DNA or fingerprints, left at the scenes of several different crimes (Grubin, Kelly, & Brunsdon, 2001). However, despite the impression that television programs such as CSI create, the availability of forensic evidence is surprisingly limited, with less than 1% of recorded crimes yielding such evidence (House of Commons, 2005). Therefore, the police often need to rely on other approaches to linking crime. One potential alternative is to use behavioral similarity, whereby crimes that show evidence of similar offender behavior are judged to have been committed by the same offender/s (referred to as linked crimes), whereas those that involve different behavior are said to have been committed by different offenders Running head: Linking Different Types of Crime 3 (referred to as unlinked crimes). This procedure is known by several names, including linkage analysis and comparative case analysis, but the term behavioral case linkage will be used in the current paper. Behavioral Case LinkageBehavioral case linkage is an investigative procedure that has received growing attention both prac...

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Section: Running Head: Linking Different Types Of Crime 23supporting

confidence: 72%

Linking Different Types of Crime Using Geographical and Temporal Proximity

Tonkin

Woodhams

Bull

et al. 2011

Criminal Justice and Behavior

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“…Based on such theories and on research fi ndings from studies of non-criminal behaviour (Pervin, 2002), it was suggested that we might observe greater behavioural similarity in the commission of serial crimes that are temporally more proximate . This hypothesis has now been tested by two studies of serial car theft (Tonkin et al, 2008) and serial sex offences (Woodhams, Hollin, & Bull, 2008) but no such relationship has been found. The current study also sought to extend such research to serial burglary.…”

mentioning

confidence: 85%

“…Studies sampling serial burglaries and serial car theft have indeed reported that geographical proximity (inter-crime distance) and temporal proximity outperform more traditional modus operandi behaviours (e.g. entry method, property stolen) (Bennell & Canter, 2002;Bennell & Jones, 2005;Goodwill & Alison, 2006;Tonkin et al, 2008). Linked crime pairs are consistently found to be closer in time and space than unlinked crime pairs.…”

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confidence: 92%

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Linking serial residential burglary: comparing the utility of modus operandi behaviours, geographical proximity, and temporal proximity

Markson

Woodhams

Bond

2010

Journal Invest Psychology

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142

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“…More recently, the notion of offense consistency has been applied to geographic and spatial behaviors, which can be seen as less situation dependent. So far, study findings show that these aspects of a crime could in fact outperformed traditional modus operandi behaviors (e.g., Bernasco, 2008;Goodwill & Alison, 2006;Markson et al, 2010;Tonkin, Grant, & Bond, 2008). For example, Bennell and Jones (2005) argued that the location chosen to commit a crime is a decision that the offender has control over and is less dependent on the situation.…”

mentioning

confidence: 95%

Consistency in crime site selection: An investigation of crime sites used by serial sex offenders across crime series

Deslauriers‐Varin¹,

Beauregard²

2014

Journal of Criminal Justice

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Purpose: Knowing sites used by serial sex offenders to commit their crimes is highly beneficial for criminal investigations. However, environmental choices of serial sex offenders remain unclear to this date. Considering the challenges these offenders pose to law enforcement, the study aims to identify sites serial sex offenders use to encounter and release their victims and investigate their stability across crime series. Methods: The study uses latent class analysis (LCA) to identify victim encounter and release sites used by 72 serial sex offenders having committed 361 sex offenses. Additional LCA are performed to investigate the stability of these offense environments across offenders' crime series. Results: Distinct profiles of crime sites that are recurrent across crime series are found, suggesting that serial sex offenders present a limited diversity of victim encounter and victim release sites. Encounter sites representative of longer crime series are also identified. Specifically, the use of sites known to "attract" potential victims decreases over series and offenders become more risk-taking in regard of sites used to encounter their victims. Conclusions: The study identifies patterns of site-selection for the victim encounter and release in cases of serial crimes. Implications for crime linkage and police investigations strategies are discussed.

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To link or not to link: a test of the case linkage principles using serial car theft data

Abstract: Abstract

Cited by 72 publications

References 26 publications

Linking Different Types of Crime Using Geographical and Temporal Proximity

Linking Different Types of Crime Using Geographical and Temporal Proximity

Linking serial residential burglary: comparing the utility of modus operandi behaviours, geographical proximity, and temporal proximity

Consistency in crime site selection: An investigation of crime sites used by serial sex offenders across crime series

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