Abstract:Ticket queues are prevalent in service industries. They enhance customer satisfaction by eliminating physical lines but may compromise efficiency. Existing studies offer mixed results on the cause and magnitude of such inefficiency. These results, however, are based on simplistic customer behaviors. Taking a holistic approach, we examine how realistic customer behaviors drive ticket queue performance. Our empirical studies reveal that (i) customers are capable of adapting their patience to the waiting context … Show more
“…We could also introduce additional covariates to our MPPM model, such as the average waiting times for those customers who abandon in each interval. However, the interval‐censored nature of the TQ data would require that we use a proxy, such as the “offered waiting time” defined in Kuzu et al (2018), for the actual waiting times before abandonment. Finally, the proposed semiparametric Bayesian modeling framework could be implemented on interval‐censored data from other domains, such as call center operations, as well as for reliability and survival analyses.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This is because increasing the number of servers, s , means the same number of customers face shorter waits before receiving service, resulting in a lower likelihood of abandoning the system. Batt and Terwiesch () analyze an emergency department data set using probit regression models, and Kuzu et al (2018) analyze a TQ data set using logistic regression models. Their findings show that an increase in the number of servers decreases the abandonment probability, thus supporting our results.…”
Section: Analysis Of Actual Tq Datamentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Unlike patience‐related studies in call centers (eg, Zohar, Mandelbaum, & Shimkin, ; Mandelbaum & Zeltyn, , ; Aksin, Ata, Emadi, & Su, , ) and emergency rooms (eg, Batt & Terwiesch ); Bolandifar, DeHoratius, Olsen, & Wiler, ), there is a dearth of literature on modeling and analyzing abandonment data for TQs. In a recent work, Kuzu, Gao, and Xu (2018) study the effects of factors that customers observe during waits (eg, the number of servers operating or the number of tickets ahead) on the probability of abandonment, but do not provide a framework for predicting customer abandonment.…”
Ticket queues (TQs) issue tickets to customers upon arrival, and are often used in the public and private sectors. Abandonment data collected by TQs is interval censored, which makes predicting customer abandonments a challenging problem. In this paper, we build a Bayesian framework for predicting abandonment counts in TQs to assist managers in workforce planning. In doing so, we propose parametric and semiparametric modulated Poisson process models and develop their Bayesian analyses using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We implement our models using actual abandonment data from a bank's TQ, and illustrate how we can provide managerial insights related to abandonment counts and server allocation policies.
“…We could also introduce additional covariates to our MPPM model, such as the average waiting times for those customers who abandon in each interval. However, the interval‐censored nature of the TQ data would require that we use a proxy, such as the “offered waiting time” defined in Kuzu et al (2018), for the actual waiting times before abandonment. Finally, the proposed semiparametric Bayesian modeling framework could be implemented on interval‐censored data from other domains, such as call center operations, as well as for reliability and survival analyses.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This is because increasing the number of servers, s , means the same number of customers face shorter waits before receiving service, resulting in a lower likelihood of abandoning the system. Batt and Terwiesch () analyze an emergency department data set using probit regression models, and Kuzu et al (2018) analyze a TQ data set using logistic regression models. Their findings show that an increase in the number of servers decreases the abandonment probability, thus supporting our results.…”
Section: Analysis Of Actual Tq Datamentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Unlike patience‐related studies in call centers (eg, Zohar, Mandelbaum, & Shimkin, ; Mandelbaum & Zeltyn, , ; Aksin, Ata, Emadi, & Su, , ) and emergency rooms (eg, Batt & Terwiesch ); Bolandifar, DeHoratius, Olsen, & Wiler, ), there is a dearth of literature on modeling and analyzing abandonment data for TQs. In a recent work, Kuzu, Gao, and Xu (2018) study the effects of factors that customers observe during waits (eg, the number of servers operating or the number of tickets ahead) on the probability of abandonment, but do not provide a framework for predicting customer abandonment.…”
Ticket queues (TQs) issue tickets to customers upon arrival, and are often used in the public and private sectors. Abandonment data collected by TQs is interval censored, which makes predicting customer abandonments a challenging problem. In this paper, we build a Bayesian framework for predicting abandonment counts in TQs to assist managers in workforce planning. In doing so, we propose parametric and semiparametric modulated Poisson process models and develop their Bayesian analyses using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We implement our models using actual abandonment data from a bank's TQ, and illustrate how we can provide managerial insights related to abandonment counts and server allocation policies.
“…This constant patience assumption may be reasonable when customers have no information about their position in queue (e.g., in some call centers). However, customers often change their level of patience, for example based on their queue position if they experience a different level of comfort, or when they know they are close to, or far from, the front of the queue [1]. For example, many restaurants provide some seats (capacity) for customers waiting inside (1 st stage queue), but not everybody can sit there; if all seats inside are filled, any remaining waiting customers must wait outside where it may be cold or raining (2 nd stage queue).…”
We study a two-stage reneging queue with Poisson arrivals, exponential services, and two levels of exponential reneging behaviors, extending the popular Erlang A model that assumes a constant reneging rate. We derive approximate analytical formulas representing performance measures for the two-stage queue following the Markov chain decomposition approach. Our formulas not only give accurate results spanning the heavy-traffic to the light-traffic regimes, but also provide insight into capacity decisions.
“…There is also extensive literature on supply chain contracting and operations (Cachon, 2003). The main themes include, e.g., demand uncertainty (Gao et al., 2012; Gao, Thomas, et al., 2014; Gao et al., 2020; Hwang et al., 2010; Kuzu et al., 2019; Xu et al., 2007; Yan & Zhao, 2011; H. Zhang et al., 2010), channel coordination (Cakanyıldırım et al., 2012; Gao, 2015a; Gao & Mishra, 2019; Gao et al., 2021; Z. Li & Gao, 2008), supply risk (Akcay & Gao, 2020; Chen & Lee, 2017; Gao, Li, et al., 2014; Gao, 2015b; Gao et al., 2017; Luo et al., 2016; Z. Yang et al., 2009), collaborative investment (Kim & Netessine, 2013), assembly procurement (Fang et al., 2014; B. Hu & Qi, 2018), service requirement (F. Zhang, 2010), contract simplicity (Bolandifar et al., 2017), and contract rigidity (Corbett et al., 2004; Chen et al., 2017). This literature mainly relies on the static principal–agent framework, which cannot capture sequential learning and progressive information revelation—the heart of our problem.…”
The rise of contract farming has transformed millions of farmers' lives. We study a new class of contract farming problems, where the farmer holds superior information and can invest effort to improve productivity over time. Despite their prevalence, the literature offers little guidance on how to manage such farmers with dynamic incentives. We build a game-theoretic model that captures the dynamic incentives of learning and gaming, with hidden action and information. We characterize the optimal contract: it internalizes both the vertical and intertemporal externalities, with performance pay and deferred payment; the performance pay is to motivate the farmer to invest and improve the relationship-specific productivity; the deferred payment is to ensure that the farmer is willing to share information and behave honestly over time. Even with random yield, the optimal contract can still have a simple implementation of a yieldadjusted revenue-sharing policy. Using real data, we show that the learning effect is significant. We then quantify when and how contract farming can improve smallholder farmers' productivity and income, creating shared value. We find when buyers have a long-term perspective and can internalize the benefit of farmer improvement, they will pay higher prices to ensure farmers' long-term viability. Our results inform the policy debate on contract farming: traditional procompetitive policies (based on spot transactions) can be counterproductive for modern agrifood value chains, hurting both buyers and farmers.
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