To what extent can ecoclimatic indicators assist crop performance predictions in oilseed rape upon repeated heat stresses?

Almeida, Lethicia Magno Massuia de; Corlouer, Erwan; Laperche, Anne; Nési, Nathalie; Mollier, Alain; Brunel‐Muguet, Sophie

doi:10.1016/j.eja.2022.126622

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 41 publications

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“…in Ref. 84 ). The combination of indicators, as previously done for maize 64 , would allow consideration of the multiple effects of stresses and their interactions within a single phenological phase, or even provide a synthetic index of climate suitability for a given area.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change

Le Roux,

Furusho-Percot,

Deswarte

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Climate change threatens food security by affecting the productivity of major cereal crops. To date, agroclimatic risk projections through indicators have focused on expected hazards exposure during the crop’s current vulnerable seasons, without considering the non-stationarity of their phenology under evolving climatic conditions. We propose a new method for spatially classifying agroclimatic risks for wheat, combining high-resolution climatic data with a wheat’s phenological model. The method is implemented for French wheat involving three GCM-RCM model pairs and two emission scenarios. We found that the precocity of phenological stages allows wheat to avoid periods of water deficit in the near future. Nevertheless, in the coming decades the emergence of heat stress and increasing water deficit will deteriorate wheat cultivation over the French territory. Projections show the appearance of combined risks of heat and water deficit up to 4 years per decade under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The proposed method provides a deep level of information that enables regional adaptation strategies: the nature of the risk, its temporal and spatial occurrence, and its potential combination with other risks. It’s a first step towards identifying potential sites for breeding crop varieties to increase the resilience of agricultural systems.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change

Le Roux,

Furusho-Percot,

Deswarte

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks. A case-study for wheat in France under climate change conditions

Roux,

Furusho-Percot,

Deswarte

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Climate change threatens food security by affecting the productivity of major cereal crops. To date, agroclimatic risk projections have focused on expected hazards exposure during the crop’s current vulnerable seasons, without considering the non-stationarity of their phenology under evolving climatic conditions. We propose a new method for spatially classifying agroclimatic risks for wheat, combining high-resolution climatic data with a wheat’s phenological model. The method is implemented for French wheat involving three GCM-RCM model pairs and two emission scenarios. We found that the precocity of phenological stages allows wheat to avoid periods of water deficit in the near future. Nevertheless, in the coming decades under the RCP 8.5 scenario, climatic conditions for wheat cultivation are projected to deteriorate over the French territory, due to the emergence of heat stress and increasing water deficit. Projections show the appearance of combined risks of heat and water deficit up to 4 years per decade. The proposed method provides a deep level of information that enables regional adaptation strategies: the nature of the risk, its temporal and spatial occurrence, and its potential combination with other risks. It’s a first step towards identifying potential sites for breeding crop varieties to increase the resilience of agricultural systems.

show abstract

To what extent can ecoclimatic indicators assist crop performance predictions in oilseed rape upon repeated heat stresses?

Cited by 2 publications

References 41 publications

Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change

Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change

Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks. A case-study for wheat in France under climate change conditions

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