Tobacco and Innovative Nicotine-containing Products Taxation and Regulation in Russia: New Issues and Solutions

Abstract

Introduction: despite the progress in smoking reduction achieved over the past 10 years Russia is still among the leaders of the global anti-rating. the progress in reducing smoking achieved over the past 10 years Russia is still among the leaders of the global anti-rating. The effectiveness of the excise policy as the main instrument begins to decline from the illicit trade, which is expanding due to the inconsistency of the tax policy in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) countries. At the same time, the innovative nicotine delivery system market has been expanding, regulation of which is characterized by serious gaps. Objectives: to identify opportunities for improving regulation of traditional tobacco and innovative nicotinecontaining products markets to increase the collection of excises and achieve public health goals. Methods: comparative analysis, retrospective and counterfactual analysis, econometric estimations. Results: for the first time, econometric estimates for the Russian market were obtained on the aggregate regional (panel) data based on the simultaneous equations model using specially generated database “Addictive products in Russian regions”. The estimates show that, ceteris paribus, an increase of 1 p.p. the distance adjusted excise tax difference to the living cost ratio (DATDLC) leads to a reduction in the legal market by an average of 0.16 %. Price elasticity estimate of the legal aggregate demand is (-0.7), income elasticity is 0,8 and price elasticity of supply is 1,5. The analysis of budgetary and market statistics showed a low collection efficiency of excise taxes on ENDS; the problem of fiscal forestalling in this segment has been discovered. Conclusions: the results of the analysis allowed to propose several effective and feasible measures including the creation of an IT-system within the EEU for the exchange of information on excisable goods, the transfer of part of excise revenue to regional budgets, controlled legalization of nicotine pouches, anti-forestalling regulation in ENDS, etc.